Mock #2 Recap

So I think I am on to something here. Rather than post all my rankings, which are so subjective anyway and can also be found on dozens of other sites, I think most of my future entries will be these draft recaps. 

Here’s the mock I took part in last night on MDC.  Click Here

I think Mock Draft’s are a very effective draft prep tool.  In no way can they help you figure out who is going to take exactly which players, in which spot, in your REAL drafts, but if you do enough you see very clear trends develop that can help you understand where certain player will be going, and at what point YOU think you should consider drafting a particular player.

For example, in the first draft I selected Liriano in the 13th round.  Prior to last night’s draft, someone who had read that post told me he thought I could have waited on him.  In the 11th round of last night’s draft, when Liriano was the top rated pitcher on my current rankings remaining, I decided to wait another round and select Street to be my #2 RP.  Gamble paid off and I was able to land him the the 14th.  Maybe next time I’ll wait till the 15th? 

One thing is for sure though, I’d take him way before Rich Hill or Ted Lilly, two pitchers selected before Liriano.  Those guys are nice pitchers, don’t get me wrong, but neither has the massive upside potential like Liriano does.  He’s coming off major injury, but he’s had a lot of time to recover, and he’s not injury PRONE like Mark Prior (at least not yet:), so no reason for me to think he can’t bounce back from this.  Sure there is risk involved, but this guy was arguably the best pitcher in fantasy baseball for a sufficient amount of time, not too long ago.

Here are some other things that stood out to me:

• I found myself taking Cano even higher than last draft, in the 4th round, but I still don’t think that was too high. All the other big 2B’s were gone (Utley, Upton, Phillips, and even Roberts) and if you look at the other offensive players remaining, I thought Cano was the most valuable. 
• Albeit the last pick of the round, I though Pence in the 5th was way too high. Don’t get me wrong, I think he’s a nice player, but I don’t think he should be going that far before (if before at all than)…
• …Delmon Young, who I was able to get in the 10th round!!! Lost in last year’s shuffle among other rookie breakouts (such as Braun, Tulowitzki, Chris B Young, Pence, etc.) Da Meat Hook’s kid bro put together a very solid freshman campaign, going .288/13/93/65/10. Let’s not forget this kid is only 22, and at a time was the #1 prospect in all of baseball. Moving to Minnesota, he’ll most likely get a shot to bat somewhere near the M&M boys (Mauer and Morneau) and he just may take the leap in 2008. I think it’s reasonable to expect a similar batting average and across the board improvement on the counting stats. Think .285/20/100/90/20.
• I already had an SS on my roster in Rollins, but when Furcal was there in the 9th I had to pounce. He suffered a tough injury right before the season last year, played through it, and his numbers suffered. BUT, in September, he bounced back nicely, going *** and 12 for 12 in SB attempts. I expect him to bounce back to his normal .280/8/60/100/40 levels.

Other picks I liked:

• Bay in the 7th. As I mentioned in my top 50, I think this guy is gonna go late like this in a lot of drafts and deliver top 20 numbers when all is said and done.
• Felix in the 10th. Right about where I’d take him. I didn’t here though, as I opted for Delmon.
• Brett Myers in the 11th. I was hoping he’d get back to me in the 12, but I wasn’t fortunate. I like him a lot.
• Shane Victorino in the 12th. After Myers went, I saw this name on the board and was shocked. Carl Crawford Lite should deliver .285/10/60/110/40 numbers hitting at the top of a very powerful Phillies lineup.

Keeper Trade

So as I mentioned in my original post about keepers, I have to decide for my C Tier between Dan Haren and Erik Bedard, and between Wang and Joba for my D.  Well, that decision may get a little easier. 

In speaking to another team in my league, I was offered either Nick Markakis or Troy Tulowitzki for Bedard.  This other team currently has Hamels as their C keeper, and views Bedard as an upgrade on him (not Haren though).  They are keeping Justin Verlander as their D and BJ Upton as their E, which makes these guys expendable.

My teammate Ari is away for the next few days, so I sent him this email explaining why I think we should make the deal.  I’d love to hear what others think.

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Here’s why I think we should trade Bedard for Tulo:

We still have Haren who is at worst a tick lower than Bedard, and we can’t keep both.   You could actually make the case that Haren may be more valuable. Obviously Bedard had a nice edge in K’s last year, but at 29 on opening day, has never thrown more than 196 innings (2006) and has spent at least 1 month on the DL in every season but 1 (2006).  Haren, 27 on opening day, has thrown at least 217 innings the last three years and has never been on the DL.  Bedard MAY be the better pitcher, but Haren is DEFINITELY younger and healthier.  They are really fairly equal, so really this deal boils down to whether you’d rather have Tulo or Joba/ Wang.

In NO scratch draft for 2008 would I EVER select Joba or Wang over Tulo.  In a regular draft this year, Tulo is probably going in the 4th/5th round (Mock Draft Central current ADP is 45).  I would probably even select Tulo before I’d take Bedard or Haren this year.  Other than a sophomore slump, I think it is fair to assume he’ll replicate his 2007 stats (.291/24/99/104/7, I can’t believe we dropped him), maybe more likely than Bedard or Haren replicating their 2007 numbers. 

It’s MUCH more likely that Tulo replicates than Joba putting up huge numbers.  They are not gonna be careful not to overwork him and there is also a chance that he pitches out of the pen, in which case he is 100% worthless to us (or anyone else, in a trade).  Wang only gives 3 stats (only wins is excellent), so it impossible for him to put up huge numbers. If a starter and we didn’t make this trade I say, for sure, Joba over Wang (for now)

So you ask what about Tulo vs. Markakis, as both can be had for the same price?

I’d predict that Markakis should probably replicate his numbers from 2007 as well (.300/23/117/97/18), with upside.

Say they both replicate their 2007 numbers, I’d prefer Tulowitzki, due mainly to the position scarcity.

There are, at best, two other SS I’d rather have than Tulo going back into our draft.  Barring unpredictable significant injury prior to keeper declaration, Reyes, Rollins, and Hanley are all being kept.  Jeter is back in, Guillen maybe.  Who else is there?  Tejada?  Young? Peralta? Hardy? Furcal? Renteria? Lugo? Orlando Cabrera? I’ll take Tulo way before any of them.  I don’t think I’m forgetting anyone.  Bobby Crosby?

What about OF of Markakis’ caliber? (By “caliber,” of course, I refer to both the size of their gun barrels and the high quality of their characters… Two meanings… caliber… it’s a homonym… Forget it.)  We are pretty certain (again barring unpredictable major injuries or trades) that Holliday (Summers is keeping Pujols), Sizemore (Lazy Bags are keeping Wright), Beltran (us), Vlad (sleeper is keeping Utley) so that’s four I’d rather have than him right there.  I’m sure there also another 5-10 of similar value I’m not mentioning.

I almost think we should pull the trigger right away before they catch on and maybe decide to keep him over Verlander (to be henceforth referred to as J-Verl).  Same as with Bedard and Haren, I’d probably take Tulo in the 4th/5th round over J-Verl in a scratch draft.

Also, let’s not forget how building our team around offense worked out for us last year. Let’s just say we did the trade for Tulo, our offensive core would be incredible (projections in parentheses.  A-Rod (.300/45/120/120/20), Ichiro (.325/6/70/100/35, Tulo (.290/20/90/100/7), CBY (.260/25/70/80/25).   

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FYI – we won our league last year without drafting a SP till the 8th round.

 What do you think?