Another Mock, Updated Top 50 Hitters, Keeper Trade

Mock Recap III

So I did another mock and the results can be found here.  NOTE:  I was a bad addict and had to run away from the computer around the 15th round, after already letting the computer auto pick for me once in the 13th.  The wife was getting annoyed.

Some notes & observations:

• I waited for Liriano till the 15th, despite the fact that I had him as the best pitcher for 2 rounds.  I didn’t get him like I had the previous 2 drafts (in the 13th and 14th rounds respectively).
• Guys I thought went way too late:  Morneau (5), Atkins (7), Konerko (9, after Todd Helton.  Aweful!), Sheffield (9).
•  A guy I like a lot this year: Jeff Francoeur (who I took in the 10th round).   The 24 year old has knocked in over 100 runs the last 2 years, and he raised his average 32 points last year (.260-.292).  He dipped a little in the home run department in 2007, but he should be a good bet for a .280-25-100-85-5 season with big time upside.  He could take a big leap in 08.

Updated Top 50 Hitters

1	Alex Rodriguez
2	Albert Pujols
3	Hanley Ramirez
4	Jimmy Rollins
5	Jose Reyes
6	Matt Holliday
7	Chase Utley
8	David Wright
9	Miguel Cabrera
10	Ryan Howard
11	Prince Fielder
12	David Ortiz
13	Grady Sizemore
14	Carl Crawford
15	Carlos Beltran
16	Vladimir Guerrero
17	Alfonso Soriano
18	Ryan Braun
19	Brandon Phillips
20	Mark Teixeira
21	Ichiro Suzuki
22	Magglio Ordonez
23	Justin Morneau
24	Lance Berkman
25	Robinson Cano
26	BJ Upton
27	Bobby Abreu
28	Aramis Ramirez
29	Derek Jeter
30	Troy Tulowitzki
31	Carlos Guillen
32	Brian Roberts
33	Travis Hafner +
34	Curtis Granderson
35	Carlos Lee
36	Adam Dunn
37	Garrett Atkins
38	Jason Bay
39	Eric Byrnes
40	Victor Martinez
41	Nick Markakis
42	Alex Rios
43	Derek Lee
44	Carlos Pena
45	Russell Martin
46	Manny Ramirez
47	Paul Konerko
48	Gary Sheffield
49	Rafael Furcal
50	Miguel Tejada

Keeper Trade

If you happened to read about this potential trade, you may glad to learn that a deal was made.  Tulowitzki was pulled off the table, as that team decided to keep him (he made the right move) and traded us Markakis for Bedard.  Trading Bedard wasn’t too difficult, as we still can keep Haren (if we kept Bedard, Haren would have gone back to the draft) and upgrading from Wang as our D keeper to Markakis was a no-brainer.   He’s a much more valuable player, with considerably more upside.

A concern of our was that of our 5 keepers, 3 are OF (Ichiro, Nick, and CBY) and that we lose a little flexibility going into the draft.  We have the #10 and 11 picks, and I am 97.2% certain Santana is going #1.  Therefore we should be able to land 2 of the following guys:  Sizemore, Beltran, Vlad. Teixeira, Soriano, Morneau, Berkman, Cano, Abreu, Jeter, Brian Roberts, Travis Hafner.   I think if we could land 2 infielders with our first 2 picks, we are in real good shape.  It’s very tough to tell how the draft is going to shake out, but if we could land like Morneau or Berkman and Cano with those 2 picks we’ll have a sick, and positionally balanced, offensive core.

Early Top 20

The sign of a true addict…

It’s midnight on a Saturday night, and I’m sitting here thinking to myself who are the Top 20 players in all of fantasy baseball for the 2008 season.  Well, here’s what I think……..for now:

1. A-Rod:  At this time last year, for the first time in about 4/5 years, no one was even thinking about him at #1, coming off a “bad year” of the .290/35/121/113/15 variety.  To me, that’s exactly why he should have remained in that discussion.  If that’s a bad year, imagine what a good year means.  Well, in case you didn’t know, A-Rod showed it, going off to the tune of .314/54/156/143/24.  This year no one is thinking about not making him #1.  5 category goodness!
2. Phat Albert Pujols: Now I know.  The sexy thing to do is rank one of the speedy shortstops first, but I’m going with last year’s undisputed #1 here.  Just as A-Rod did in ‘06, Pujols had a “bad year” finishing with a pedestrian .327/32/103/99/2.  Just as A-Rod in ‘07, I expect a return of the real Phat Albert.  Think something along the lines of his insane career avg.’s of .332/42/128/126/6.  The only reason he is below A-Rod is because he is in a far inferior lineup.
3. Hanley Ramirez: OK, now I’m sexy.  A lot of folks, myself included, thought we’d see a bit of regression in 2007 after HaRam’s .292/17/59/119/51, rookie of the year 2006.  Well, he raised his numbers precipitously across the board (except steals) to .332/29/81/125/51.  He just turned 24.  I don’t know if the numbers can get any better than that, but I don’t know that I’d bet against it. 
4.  Jimmy Rollins: I didn’t think he should have been NL MVP, but you can’t really argue when a little shortstop hits .296/ 30/94/139/41.  Mid-prime switch hitter + great lineup + great ballpark = another stellar season for J-Roll. 
5. Jose Reyes:202.  That’s how many bases Jose Reyes has stolen the last 3 years.  You have him on your team, you are guaranteed top 3 in steals.  It’s as simple as that.  No player in fantasy baseball dominates a single category more.  He took an expected power dip last season (come on, you really thought he’d hit 20 homers?) , but that’s the only reason he’s below HanRam and Rollins.
6.  Matt Holiday:  Remember how everyone used to call the next big thing in college basketball Baby-Jordan (see Harold Minor, JR Rider)?  Well, after a second monster year in a row I think I’m gonna start calling Holliday Baby Pujols.  In that crazy park, I fully expect another crazy year for my #1 OF.
7. Chase Utley:  The 2B finished last year at .332/22/103/104/9.   Oh, he missed 30 games.  Flat out STUPID numbers at the thinnest position in the sport.  Think .320/30/120/120/17.  Definitely worth this high ranking.
8. David Wright:  I may move him up over Utley as the season nears, because his numbers from ‘06 were certainly better, but I do not expect another 34 steals (think 20-25) and the position is a little deeper. 
9. Miguel Cabrera:  I was concerned with his physique last year, but initial reports are that he’s lost some baby fat this off-season, and the dude still puts up numbers in a crappy lineup every year.  Now in the middle of arguably the best lineup in baseball, I’m scared to see what he can do.  He  may be top 3 next year.
10.  Johan Santana: If he goes to the Yanks or Red Sox, he’s 20 wins guaranteed.   We already know the other numbers.   Peavy narrowed the gap a little, but he’s still the best pitcher in FBB, and the only one I put in the top 20.
11. Ryan Howard:  If he didn’t miss 18 games, he would have had back to back 50 homer years.  I don’t like that he only hit .268.  But you know what, if you do that and still hit 50/140, you are still damn good.
12. Prince Fielder: I said to my boy Ari last preseason that I think Fielder may explode like Ryan Howard did the year before.  I was right.  That’s why I put him right behind Howard this year.  I don’t know if I expect 50 dingers (think 40-45), but everything else should be on par.
13. David Ortiz: Only reasons he’s below these two are that he’s DH only and a little older. 
14. Vlad Guerrero: Only reason he’s below Ortiz is because he doesn’t run anymore.  He’s breaking down a little physically, but he’s still a beast!
15. Grady Sizemore:  If they move him out of the leadoff spot, he’ll drive in 100 runs.  As great as he is in fantasy, he’s even better in “real baseball.”   He’s come close the last 2, but he will go 30-30 this year.
16. Carl Crawford:  The last few years people (again, myself included) have rated him higher because they thought a power spike was coming, and he’d be 20 HR guy.  He actually dipped down to 11 homers in 07.  Let’s just all accept him for what he is, a great fantasy OF with top shelf speed, and call it at that.  Crazy Carl’s numbers have been pretty stable the last 3 years, so expect something like .310/15/80/100/50.  No shame in that.
17. Travis Hafner:  Probably the biggest bust in FBB 2007, Pronk’s gonna be back with a vengeance.  NOTE:  If you are in a league where 10 games at a position get you eligibility for the next season (Yahoo), Pronk had 11 games at 1B last year.  That moves him up to 15 on this list.
18. Carlos Beltran:  Every year, a few guys say they are gonna run more, only to let us down.  Beltran walked the walk last year, going from 18 to 23 steals, while missing 18 games.  He’s not gonna hit for a good average, but it will be decent (275ish) and everything else is gonna be excellent. 
19. Alfonso Soriano: He’s a tough guy to crack.  One year he’s top 5.  The next year he slips to the 2nd round, the next year he’s back in the top 5.  Now he’s back in the 2nd round.  I don’t know about top 5 next year, but he will rise.  He actually hit .299 last year and I love those 30-30 guys!
20. Ryan Braun:  I know, it was only one year.  But you know what, he was second only to A-Rod in terms of per-game production last year.  I think he’ll regress a little in the batting average (think 290) but he could still approach and even improve on his counting number totals of 34/97/91/15. 

Just missed:  Brandon Phillips, Mark Teixeira, Ichiro, Magglio Ordonez, Justin Morneau, Robinson Cano.