Keeper Trade

So as I mentioned in my original post about keepers, I have to decide for my C Tier between Dan Haren and Erik Bedard, and between Wang and Joba for my D.  Well, that decision may get a little easier. 

In speaking to another team in my league, I was offered either Nick Markakis or Troy Tulowitzki for Bedard.  This other team currently has Hamels as their C keeper, and views Bedard as an upgrade on him (not Haren though).  They are keeping Justin Verlander as their D and BJ Upton as their E, which makes these guys expendable.

My teammate Ari is away for the next few days, so I sent him this email explaining why I think we should make the deal.  I’d love to hear what others think.

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Here’s why I think we should trade Bedard for Tulo:

We still have Haren who is at worst a tick lower than Bedard, and we can’t keep both.   You could actually make the case that Haren may be more valuable. Obviously Bedard had a nice edge in K’s last year, but at 29 on opening day, has never thrown more than 196 innings (2006) and has spent at least 1 month on the DL in every season but 1 (2006).  Haren, 27 on opening day, has thrown at least 217 innings the last three years and has never been on the DL.  Bedard MAY be the better pitcher, but Haren is DEFINITELY younger and healthier.  They are really fairly equal, so really this deal boils down to whether you’d rather have Tulo or Joba/ Wang.

In NO scratch draft for 2008 would I EVER select Joba or Wang over Tulo.  In a regular draft this year, Tulo is probably going in the 4th/5th round (Mock Draft Central current ADP is 45).  I would probably even select Tulo before I’d take Bedard or Haren this year.  Other than a sophomore slump, I think it is fair to assume he’ll replicate his 2007 stats (.291/24/99/104/7, I can’t believe we dropped him), maybe more likely than Bedard or Haren replicating their 2007 numbers. 

It’s MUCH more likely that Tulo replicates than Joba putting up huge numbers.  They are not gonna be careful not to overwork him and there is also a chance that he pitches out of the pen, in which case he is 100% worthless to us (or anyone else, in a trade).  Wang only gives 3 stats (only wins is excellent), so it impossible for him to put up huge numbers. If a starter and we didn’t make this trade I say, for sure, Joba over Wang (for now)

So you ask what about Tulo vs. Markakis, as both can be had for the same price?

I’d predict that Markakis should probably replicate his numbers from 2007 as well (.300/23/117/97/18), with upside.

Say they both replicate their 2007 numbers, I’d prefer Tulowitzki, due mainly to the position scarcity.

There are, at best, two other SS I’d rather have than Tulo going back into our draft.  Barring unpredictable significant injury prior to keeper declaration, Reyes, Rollins, and Hanley are all being kept.  Jeter is back in, Guillen maybe.  Who else is there?  Tejada?  Young? Peralta? Hardy? Furcal? Renteria? Lugo? Orlando Cabrera? I’ll take Tulo way before any of them.  I don’t think I’m forgetting anyone.  Bobby Crosby?

What about OF of Markakis’ caliber? (By “caliber,” of course, I refer to both the size of their gun barrels and the high quality of their characters… Two meanings… caliber… it’s a homonym… Forget it.)  We are pretty certain (again barring unpredictable major injuries or trades) that Holliday (Summers is keeping Pujols), Sizemore (Lazy Bags are keeping Wright), Beltran (us), Vlad (sleeper is keeping Utley) so that’s four I’d rather have than him right there.  I’m sure there also another 5-10 of similar value I’m not mentioning.

I almost think we should pull the trigger right away before they catch on and maybe decide to keep him over Verlander (to be henceforth referred to as J-Verl).  Same as with Bedard and Haren, I’d probably take Tulo in the 4th/5th round over J-Verl in a scratch draft.

Also, let’s not forget how building our team around offense worked out for us last year. Let’s just say we did the trade for Tulo, our offensive core would be incredible (projections in parentheses.  A-Rod (.300/45/120/120/20), Ichiro (.325/6/70/100/35, Tulo (.290/20/90/100/7), CBY (.260/25/70/80/25).   

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FYI – we won our league last year without drafting a SP till the 8th round.

 What do you think?

Early Top 20

The sign of a true addict…

It’s midnight on a Saturday night, and I’m sitting here thinking to myself who are the Top 20 players in all of fantasy baseball for the 2008 season.  Well, here’s what I think……..for now:

1. A-Rod:  At this time last year, for the first time in about 4/5 years, no one was even thinking about him at #1, coming off a “bad year” of the .290/35/121/113/15 variety.  To me, that’s exactly why he should have remained in that discussion.  If that’s a bad year, imagine what a good year means.  Well, in case you didn’t know, A-Rod showed it, going off to the tune of .314/54/156/143/24.  This year no one is thinking about not making him #1.  5 category goodness!
2. Phat Albert Pujols: Now I know.  The sexy thing to do is rank one of the speedy shortstops first, but I’m going with last year’s undisputed #1 here.  Just as A-Rod did in ‘06, Pujols had a “bad year” finishing with a pedestrian .327/32/103/99/2.  Just as A-Rod in ‘07, I expect a return of the real Phat Albert.  Think something along the lines of his insane career avg.’s of .332/42/128/126/6.  The only reason he is below A-Rod is because he is in a far inferior lineup.
3. Hanley Ramirez: OK, now I’m sexy.  A lot of folks, myself included, thought we’d see a bit of regression in 2007 after HaRam’s .292/17/59/119/51, rookie of the year 2006.  Well, he raised his numbers precipitously across the board (except steals) to .332/29/81/125/51.  He just turned 24.  I don’t know if the numbers can get any better than that, but I don’t know that I’d bet against it. 
4.  Jimmy Rollins: I didn’t think he should have been NL MVP, but you can’t really argue when a little shortstop hits .296/ 30/94/139/41.  Mid-prime switch hitter + great lineup + great ballpark = another stellar season for J-Roll. 
5. Jose Reyes:202.  That’s how many bases Jose Reyes has stolen the last 3 years.  You have him on your team, you are guaranteed top 3 in steals.  It’s as simple as that.  No player in fantasy baseball dominates a single category more.  He took an expected power dip last season (come on, you really thought he’d hit 20 homers?) , but that’s the only reason he’s below HanRam and Rollins.
6.  Matt Holiday:  Remember how everyone used to call the next big thing in college basketball Baby-Jordan (see Harold Minor, JR Rider)?  Well, after a second monster year in a row I think I’m gonna start calling Holliday Baby Pujols.  In that crazy park, I fully expect another crazy year for my #1 OF.
7. Chase Utley:  The 2B finished last year at .332/22/103/104/9.   Oh, he missed 30 games.  Flat out STUPID numbers at the thinnest position in the sport.  Think .320/30/120/120/17.  Definitely worth this high ranking.
8. David Wright:  I may move him up over Utley as the season nears, because his numbers from ‘06 were certainly better, but I do not expect another 34 steals (think 20-25) and the position is a little deeper. 
9. Miguel Cabrera:  I was concerned with his physique last year, but initial reports are that he’s lost some baby fat this off-season, and the dude still puts up numbers in a crappy lineup every year.  Now in the middle of arguably the best lineup in baseball, I’m scared to see what he can do.  He  may be top 3 next year.
10.  Johan Santana: If he goes to the Yanks or Red Sox, he’s 20 wins guaranteed.   We already know the other numbers.   Peavy narrowed the gap a little, but he’s still the best pitcher in FBB, and the only one I put in the top 20.
11. Ryan Howard:  If he didn’t miss 18 games, he would have had back to back 50 homer years.  I don’t like that he only hit .268.  But you know what, if you do that and still hit 50/140, you are still damn good.
12. Prince Fielder: I said to my boy Ari last preseason that I think Fielder may explode like Ryan Howard did the year before.  I was right.  That’s why I put him right behind Howard this year.  I don’t know if I expect 50 dingers (think 40-45), but everything else should be on par.
13. David Ortiz: Only reasons he’s below these two are that he’s DH only and a little older. 
14. Vlad Guerrero: Only reason he’s below Ortiz is because he doesn’t run anymore.  He’s breaking down a little physically, but he’s still a beast!
15. Grady Sizemore:  If they move him out of the leadoff spot, he’ll drive in 100 runs.  As great as he is in fantasy, he’s even better in “real baseball.”   He’s come close the last 2, but he will go 30-30 this year.
16. Carl Crawford:  The last few years people (again, myself included) have rated him higher because they thought a power spike was coming, and he’d be 20 HR guy.  He actually dipped down to 11 homers in 07.  Let’s just all accept him for what he is, a great fantasy OF with top shelf speed, and call it at that.  Crazy Carl’s numbers have been pretty stable the last 3 years, so expect something like .310/15/80/100/50.  No shame in that.
17. Travis Hafner:  Probably the biggest bust in FBB 2007, Pronk’s gonna be back with a vengeance.  NOTE:  If you are in a league where 10 games at a position get you eligibility for the next season (Yahoo), Pronk had 11 games at 1B last year.  That moves him up to 15 on this list.
18. Carlos Beltran:  Every year, a few guys say they are gonna run more, only to let us down.  Beltran walked the walk last year, going from 18 to 23 steals, while missing 18 games.  He’s not gonna hit for a good average, but it will be decent (275ish) and everything else is gonna be excellent. 
19. Alfonso Soriano: He’s a tough guy to crack.  One year he’s top 5.  The next year he slips to the 2nd round, the next year he’s back in the top 5.  Now he’s back in the 2nd round.  I don’t know about top 5 next year, but he will rise.  He actually hit .299 last year and I love those 30-30 guys!
20. Ryan Braun:  I know, it was only one year.  But you know what, he was second only to A-Rod in terms of per-game production last year.  I think he’ll regress a little in the batting average (think 290) but he could still approach and even improve on his counting number totals of 34/97/91/15. 

Just missed:  Brandon Phillips, Mark Teixeira, Ichiro, Magglio Ordonez, Justin Morneau, Robinson Cano.