Keeper Trade

So as I mentioned in my original post about keepers, I have to decide for my C Tier between Dan Haren and Erik Bedard, and between Wang and Joba for my D.  Well, that decision may get a little easier. 

In speaking to another team in my league, I was offered either Nick Markakis or Troy Tulowitzki for Bedard.  This other team currently has Hamels as their C keeper, and views Bedard as an upgrade on him (not Haren though).  They are keeping Justin Verlander as their D and BJ Upton as their E, which makes these guys expendable.

My teammate Ari is away for the next few days, so I sent him this email explaining why I think we should make the deal.  I’d love to hear what others think.

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Here’s why I think we should trade Bedard for Tulo:

We still have Haren who is at worst a tick lower than Bedard, and we can’t keep both.   You could actually make the case that Haren may be more valuable. Obviously Bedard had a nice edge in K’s last year, but at 29 on opening day, has never thrown more than 196 innings (2006) and has spent at least 1 month on the DL in every season but 1 (2006).  Haren, 27 on opening day, has thrown at least 217 innings the last three years and has never been on the DL.  Bedard MAY be the better pitcher, but Haren is DEFINITELY younger and healthier.  They are really fairly equal, so really this deal boils down to whether you’d rather have Tulo or Joba/ Wang.

In NO scratch draft for 2008 would I EVER select Joba or Wang over Tulo.  In a regular draft this year, Tulo is probably going in the 4th/5th round (Mock Draft Central current ADP is 45).  I would probably even select Tulo before I’d take Bedard or Haren this year.  Other than a sophomore slump, I think it is fair to assume he’ll replicate his 2007 stats (.291/24/99/104/7, I can’t believe we dropped him), maybe more likely than Bedard or Haren replicating their 2007 numbers. 

It’s MUCH more likely that Tulo replicates than Joba putting up huge numbers.  They are not gonna be careful not to overwork him and there is also a chance that he pitches out of the pen, in which case he is 100% worthless to us (or anyone else, in a trade).  Wang only gives 3 stats (only wins is excellent), so it impossible for him to put up huge numbers. If a starter and we didn’t make this trade I say, for sure, Joba over Wang (for now)

So you ask what about Tulo vs. Markakis, as both can be had for the same price?

I’d predict that Markakis should probably replicate his numbers from 2007 as well (.300/23/117/97/18), with upside.

Say they both replicate their 2007 numbers, I’d prefer Tulowitzki, due mainly to the position scarcity.

There are, at best, two other SS I’d rather have than Tulo going back into our draft.  Barring unpredictable significant injury prior to keeper declaration, Reyes, Rollins, and Hanley are all being kept.  Jeter is back in, Guillen maybe.  Who else is there?  Tejada?  Young? Peralta? Hardy? Furcal? Renteria? Lugo? Orlando Cabrera? I’ll take Tulo way before any of them.  I don’t think I’m forgetting anyone.  Bobby Crosby?

What about OF of Markakis’ caliber? (By “caliber,” of course, I refer to both the size of their gun barrels and the high quality of their characters… Two meanings… caliber… it’s a homonym… Forget it.)  We are pretty certain (again barring unpredictable major injuries or trades) that Holliday (Summers is keeping Pujols), Sizemore (Lazy Bags are keeping Wright), Beltran (us), Vlad (sleeper is keeping Utley) so that’s four I’d rather have than him right there.  I’m sure there also another 5-10 of similar value I’m not mentioning.

I almost think we should pull the trigger right away before they catch on and maybe decide to keep him over Verlander (to be henceforth referred to as J-Verl).  Same as with Bedard and Haren, I’d probably take Tulo in the 4th/5th round over J-Verl in a scratch draft.

Also, let’s not forget how building our team around offense worked out for us last year. Let’s just say we did the trade for Tulo, our offensive core would be incredible (projections in parentheses.  A-Rod (.300/45/120/120/20), Ichiro (.325/6/70/100/35, Tulo (.290/20/90/100/7), CBY (.260/25/70/80/25).   

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FYI – we won our league last year without drafting a SP till the 8th round.

 What do you think?

21-50

Due to the tremendous amount of positive feedback I received on my initial Top 20 rankings, I have decided to include my current #21 – 50 rankings.  In the coming weeks I’ll be doing positional ranks. 

 21.     Brandon Phillips:  30-30 at 2B.  He probably should be higher than this, maybe ahead of Soriano, but this is only the first time we’ve seen him do this.  Probably not the last though. 

22.     Mark Teixeira: Started off a little slow once again in 07, but he bounced back pretty quickly.  Missed a few weeks and still finished with very good numbers, .300/30/104/86/0.  Assuming healthy and you can deal with a slow starter, he’s a lock at 35-100 with upside.  

23.     Ichiro: The only reason he is not higher is because unless he hits .350 (which I’m not saying is not likely), he’s a tick below Crawford.   LOCK at .315 AVG, 100 runs, and 40 SB’s.   

24.     Magglio Ordonez: I think a lot of “experts” may rank him higher than this, but he’s not going to hit .363 again and I expect the power numbers to drop as well.  He’s gonna be really good, think .300/25/110/90/4, but not 2007 good. 

25.     Justin Morneau:  I think this guy is gonna be a lot (numbers wise) like pre-2007 Carlos Delgado.  Every year he’ll get a very streaky .280/35/100 (great months, bad months, no in betweens), but he’s gonna have 2-3 years where he just goes off (ie 2006).   After a down year in 2007, are we in for a resurgence?  

26.     Robinson Cano: As a staunch supporter of the New York Yankees, I watch a lot of games.  I’ve seen a good majority of Robinson Cano’s MLB at bats.  This guy is INSANE!  When he’s on (not like the first half of 07, more like the 2^nd) he can hit any pitch to any part of the ballpark. Hit a ridiculous .343 after the All Star break, with 13 HR and 57 RBI.  If the Yankees wise up and move him to the #5 hole, between A-Rod and Posada, the blossoming 2B is gonna hit .320/25/110/100/5 and he’s gonna win a batting title one of these years. 

27.     Lance Berkman: The #1 multi-position eligible player in the game (1B, OF) had an off 2007, but still hit .278/34/102.  With the acquisition of Miguel Tejada and Kaz Matsui to infuse the lineup, Lance’s numbers should improve.   

28.     BJ Upton:  The #2 multi-position eligible player (2B, OF) is an electrifying talent that has #1 overall potential.  He may not have the patience yet to meet his 2007 batting average (.300), but he’s a good enough hitter to hit .285 with 30-30 potential.  Enjoy the 2B eligibility this year, but it is probably the last as he’s developed nicely as a CF. 

29.     Adam Dunn: Dunn owners were pleasantly surprised with a .264 average last year.  He’s hit exactly 40 home runs in each of the last 3 seasons, 46 the season before that.  He’s gonna kill your AVG, but he’s gonna give you excellent power numbers and is a very valuable player.  If he can hit .260 again, you’ll be fine. 

30.     Aramis Ramirez:  He missed about 30 games and still had excellent numbers.  Lock for .285/30/100/90. 

31.     Derek Jeter: It was a tough decision going with him over Carlos Guillen, but I think his downside is pretty close to Guillen’s upside.  At worst he’ll do what he did last year, .322/12/73/102/15, but he also has the potential to go .340/15/95/120/25. 

32.     Carlos Guillen:  Let’s call him 31(a). One of the most underrated players in fantasy baseball.  He’s gonna move to 1B this year and he’ll give you nice 5 category production.  Think .300/18/90/100/18.   

33.     Bobby Abreu:  Another Yankee lefty who endured a disastrous first half, but was en fuego after the break to give him nice overall numbers of the .283/16/101/123/25.  I think his numbers will be right there again this year, but you’ll be getting them more consistently.  A very nice player (I think Ari will disagree though). 

34.     Curtis Granderson:  To be honest, I did not realize how good a year he had last year until a couple weeks ago.  He probably deserves to be much higher on this list.  A very good shot to repeat his .300/23/74/122/26, 2007 numbers. 

35.     Carlos Lee:  One of these years he’s gonna be too fat to be good.  Problem is, each year he rakes.  I think the days of 20 steals are over, but he’s a lock at .285/30/110/90.  He’s just about done it the last 5 years.

36.     Brian Roberts:  The last of the good 2B’s.  Big drop-off after him.  Speed Demon.  Think .280/10/70/100/40. 

37.     Carlos Pena: 2007’s biggest surprise.  Won’t be that good again, but he’ll be close.  

38.     Garret Atkins:  There’s something about him I don’t like, but it’s definitely not his back to back campaigns of at least .300/25/110 or his home ballpark. 

39.     Victor Martinez:  Let me preface this with that I would never draft a catcher this high.  BUT, if I would, it would be him.  Projection: .300/18/90/80.  

40.     Troy Tulowitzki:  We cut him early last year.  Big mistake.  Imagine his numbers if he didn’t hit .244 in April?  In case you can’t, I think we’ll see them in 2008.  

41.     Jason Bay:  My pick for the 2008 Fantasy Superstar OF Who is Going to be Drafted Way Too Late and Win His Owners Leagues This Year Award.  Previous winners include Gary Sheffield (2007), Vernon Wells (2006).   

42.     Eric Byrnes:  Raise your hand if you predicted he’d go .286/21/83/103/50 in 2007? (Anyone? Anyone?) Raise your hand if you think he’ll do it again in 2008? (Anyone? Anyone?)  Raise your hand if you think he’ll come close (Ed. Note: I am raising my hand) 

43.     Nick Markakis:  A really nice young developing hitter.  Kind of reminds me a little of Paul O’Neill.  Should hit .310/25/100/100/15 for years to come. 

44.     Alex Rios: He teased us in 2006, but he really put out in 2007.  I don’t know how much upside he really has, but he should be able to duplicate his .297/24/85/114/17 statline. 

45.     Derek Lee: Had a decent year in 2007, coming back from a wrist injury.  The power stroke returned in the second half.  I think he should be safe for .300/30/100/90.  I think the days of 15 steals are gone though. 

46.     Russell Martin:  Had an incredible 2007, almost going 20-20 (finished at 19-21).  I don’t know if I’d bet on him doing it, but he should come close again.   

47.     Manny Ramirez:  Manny has regressed statistically in each of the last 2 years.  It can probably be attributed to poor health, and that is a legitimate concern for 2008.  However, if he can stay healthy, when he plays he rakes.   

48.     Paul Konerko:  We knew going into 2007 he wouldn’t hit .300 again, but we didn’t expect .259.  Nevertheless, he did finish with 31 homers and 90 RBI.  Again, if that’s a bad year, sign me up! 

49.     Gary Sheffield:  Got off to a terrible start but was just plain STUPID from May-July.  Then he got hurt and never really regained his stroke.  He should be healthy to start the year, so I expect a typical Gary Sheffield season.  Think .290/30/110/90/15.  Note that unless you are in a 10 game eligibility league, he’s a DH only.

50.     Jake Peavy:  Best pitcher in the game last year.  3 straight years of 200 K’s.  Give me one more year like last and you jump up to Santana land.

Just Missed: Miguel Tejada, Chipper Jones, Adrian Gonzalez

Top 50 Positional Breakdown:  2 SP, 2 C, 9 1B, 5 2B, 6 SS, 6 3B, 19 OF, 3 DH