My First Mock of 2008

Just a note that I’ll be going on vacation tomorrow, so I don’t think I’ll be posting anything for the next couple of days.

 Anyway, I was bored the other night, and I had a couple hours free, so I went to Mock Draft Central.

 The results of the draft can be found here .

Some notes:

1. I was fairly happy with my squad.   As always, I focused on offense early, taking Holliday, Ortiz, Morneau, Hafner, Cano, Bay, and Figgins with my first 7 picks, before shifiting my attention to pitching, and I was able to put together a very solid rotation (Haren, Smoltz, Cain, Liriano, Schilling, Snell, Pettitte, Blanton) 
2. Getting Wagner in the 9 and Mariano in 11 round I thought were great value picks.  They are not in the top 4 closers(Putz, Papelbon, KRod, Nathan) but both are on very good teams who should win a lot a games, and thus get plenty of save opps)
3. Normally, I’m not a big Figgins guy, but I basically ignored speed in the early rounds, so I needed to get a specialist.  Getting him the 7th was a great value.  Let’s also not forget he did hit .330 last year.
4. Someone else got Byrnes in the 7th, right before I took Figgins.  I think that was the steal of this draft.  He should go before Chris B Young (which was not the case here)
5. I’m not as high on him as some others (due to his ballpark, lineup, inconsistency) but Adrian Gonzalez at the end of the 9th round was a nice pick too.
6. I got some flak for taking Liriano in the 13th, but I am fine with gambling on my #4 SP with #1 upside there.
7. Someone took Russell Martin before V-Mart.  I don’t like that.  I know Martin runs, but it’s not like he is Vince Coleman.  V-Mart is better.
8. I was surprised to see Peavy go before Johan, but in speaking with others in the draft room, there were a lot of people who agreed.   That’s fine.  They are all wrong though.

Keeper Trade

So as I mentioned in my original post about keepers, I have to decide for my C Tier between Dan Haren and Erik Bedard, and between Wang and Joba for my D.  Well, that decision may get a little easier. 

In speaking to another team in my league, I was offered either Nick Markakis or Troy Tulowitzki for Bedard.  This other team currently has Hamels as their C keeper, and views Bedard as an upgrade on him (not Haren though).  They are keeping Justin Verlander as their D and BJ Upton as their E, which makes these guys expendable.

My teammate Ari is away for the next few days, so I sent him this email explaining why I think we should make the deal.  I’d love to hear what others think.

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Here’s why I think we should trade Bedard for Tulo:

We still have Haren who is at worst a tick lower than Bedard, and we can’t keep both.   You could actually make the case that Haren may be more valuable. Obviously Bedard had a nice edge in K’s last year, but at 29 on opening day, has never thrown more than 196 innings (2006) and has spent at least 1 month on the DL in every season but 1 (2006).  Haren, 27 on opening day, has thrown at least 217 innings the last three years and has never been on the DL.  Bedard MAY be the better pitcher, but Haren is DEFINITELY younger and healthier.  They are really fairly equal, so really this deal boils down to whether you’d rather have Tulo or Joba/ Wang.

In NO scratch draft for 2008 would I EVER select Joba or Wang over Tulo.  In a regular draft this year, Tulo is probably going in the 4th/5th round (Mock Draft Central current ADP is 45).  I would probably even select Tulo before I’d take Bedard or Haren this year.  Other than a sophomore slump, I think it is fair to assume he’ll replicate his 2007 stats (.291/24/99/104/7, I can’t believe we dropped him), maybe more likely than Bedard or Haren replicating their 2007 numbers. 

It’s MUCH more likely that Tulo replicates than Joba putting up huge numbers.  They are not gonna be careful not to overwork him and there is also a chance that he pitches out of the pen, in which case he is 100% worthless to us (or anyone else, in a trade).  Wang only gives 3 stats (only wins is excellent), so it impossible for him to put up huge numbers. If a starter and we didn’t make this trade I say, for sure, Joba over Wang (for now)

So you ask what about Tulo vs. Markakis, as both can be had for the same price?

I’d predict that Markakis should probably replicate his numbers from 2007 as well (.300/23/117/97/18), with upside.

Say they both replicate their 2007 numbers, I’d prefer Tulowitzki, due mainly to the position scarcity.

There are, at best, two other SS I’d rather have than Tulo going back into our draft.  Barring unpredictable significant injury prior to keeper declaration, Reyes, Rollins, and Hanley are all being kept.  Jeter is back in, Guillen maybe.  Who else is there?  Tejada?  Young? Peralta? Hardy? Furcal? Renteria? Lugo? Orlando Cabrera? I’ll take Tulo way before any of them.  I don’t think I’m forgetting anyone.  Bobby Crosby?

What about OF of Markakis’ caliber? (By “caliber,” of course, I refer to both the size of their gun barrels and the high quality of their characters… Two meanings… caliber… it’s a homonym… Forget it.)  We are pretty certain (again barring unpredictable major injuries or trades) that Holliday (Summers is keeping Pujols), Sizemore (Lazy Bags are keeping Wright), Beltran (us), Vlad (sleeper is keeping Utley) so that’s four I’d rather have than him right there.  I’m sure there also another 5-10 of similar value I’m not mentioning.

I almost think we should pull the trigger right away before they catch on and maybe decide to keep him over Verlander (to be henceforth referred to as J-Verl).  Same as with Bedard and Haren, I’d probably take Tulo in the 4th/5th round over J-Verl in a scratch draft.

Also, let’s not forget how building our team around offense worked out for us last year. Let’s just say we did the trade for Tulo, our offensive core would be incredible (projections in parentheses.  A-Rod (.300/45/120/120/20), Ichiro (.325/6/70/100/35, Tulo (.290/20/90/100/7), CBY (.260/25/70/80/25).   

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FYI – we won our league last year without drafting a SP till the 8th round.

 What do you think?