Another Mock, Updated Top 50 Hitters, Keeper Trade

Mock Recap III

So I did another mock and the results can be found here.  NOTE:  I was a bad addict and had to run away from the computer around the 15th round, after already letting the computer auto pick for me once in the 13th.  The wife was getting annoyed.

Some notes & observations:

• I waited for Liriano till the 15th, despite the fact that I had him as the best pitcher for 2 rounds.  I didn’t get him like I had the previous 2 drafts (in the 13th and 14th rounds respectively).
• Guys I thought went way too late:  Morneau (5), Atkins (7), Konerko (9, after Todd Helton.  Aweful!), Sheffield (9).
•  A guy I like a lot this year: Jeff Francoeur (who I took in the 10th round).   The 24 year old has knocked in over 100 runs the last 2 years, and he raised his average 32 points last year (.260-.292).  He dipped a little in the home run department in 2007, but he should be a good bet for a .280-25-100-85-5 season with big time upside.  He could take a big leap in 08.

Updated Top 50 Hitters

1	Alex Rodriguez
2	Albert Pujols
3	Hanley Ramirez
4	Jimmy Rollins
5	Jose Reyes
6	Matt Holliday
7	Chase Utley
8	David Wright
9	Miguel Cabrera
10	Ryan Howard
11	Prince Fielder
12	David Ortiz
13	Grady Sizemore
14	Carl Crawford
15	Carlos Beltran
16	Vladimir Guerrero
17	Alfonso Soriano
18	Ryan Braun
19	Brandon Phillips
20	Mark Teixeira
21	Ichiro Suzuki
22	Magglio Ordonez
23	Justin Morneau
24	Lance Berkman
25	Robinson Cano
26	BJ Upton
27	Bobby Abreu
28	Aramis Ramirez
29	Derek Jeter
30	Troy Tulowitzki
31	Carlos Guillen
32	Brian Roberts
33	Travis Hafner +
34	Curtis Granderson
35	Carlos Lee
36	Adam Dunn
37	Garrett Atkins
38	Jason Bay
39	Eric Byrnes
40	Victor Martinez
41	Nick Markakis
42	Alex Rios
43	Derek Lee
44	Carlos Pena
45	Russell Martin
46	Manny Ramirez
47	Paul Konerko
48	Gary Sheffield
49	Rafael Furcal
50	Miguel Tejada

Keeper Trade

If you happened to read about this potential trade, you may glad to learn that a deal was made.  Tulowitzki was pulled off the table, as that team decided to keep him (he made the right move) and traded us Markakis for Bedard.  Trading Bedard wasn’t too difficult, as we still can keep Haren (if we kept Bedard, Haren would have gone back to the draft) and upgrading from Wang as our D keeper to Markakis was a no-brainer.   He’s a much more valuable player, with considerably more upside.

A concern of our was that of our 5 keepers, 3 are OF (Ichiro, Nick, and CBY) and that we lose a little flexibility going into the draft.  We have the #10 and 11 picks, and I am 97.2% certain Santana is going #1.  Therefore we should be able to land 2 of the following guys:  Sizemore, Beltran, Vlad. Teixeira, Soriano, Morneau, Berkman, Cano, Abreu, Jeter, Brian Roberts, Travis Hafner.   I think if we could land 2 infielders with our first 2 picks, we are in real good shape.  It’s very tough to tell how the draft is going to shake out, but if we could land like Morneau or Berkman and Cano with those 2 picks we’ll have a sick, and positionally balanced, offensive core.

Keeper Trade

So as I mentioned in my original post about keepers, I have to decide for my C Tier between Dan Haren and Erik Bedard, and between Wang and Joba for my D.  Well, that decision may get a little easier. 

In speaking to another team in my league, I was offered either Nick Markakis or Troy Tulowitzki for Bedard.  This other team currently has Hamels as their C keeper, and views Bedard as an upgrade on him (not Haren though).  They are keeping Justin Verlander as their D and BJ Upton as their E, which makes these guys expendable.

My teammate Ari is away for the next few days, so I sent him this email explaining why I think we should make the deal.  I’d love to hear what others think.

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Here’s why I think we should trade Bedard for Tulo:

We still have Haren who is at worst a tick lower than Bedard, and we can’t keep both.   You could actually make the case that Haren may be more valuable. Obviously Bedard had a nice edge in K’s last year, but at 29 on opening day, has never thrown more than 196 innings (2006) and has spent at least 1 month on the DL in every season but 1 (2006).  Haren, 27 on opening day, has thrown at least 217 innings the last three years and has never been on the DL.  Bedard MAY be the better pitcher, but Haren is DEFINITELY younger and healthier.  They are really fairly equal, so really this deal boils down to whether you’d rather have Tulo or Joba/ Wang.

In NO scratch draft for 2008 would I EVER select Joba or Wang over Tulo.  In a regular draft this year, Tulo is probably going in the 4th/5th round (Mock Draft Central current ADP is 45).  I would probably even select Tulo before I’d take Bedard or Haren this year.  Other than a sophomore slump, I think it is fair to assume he’ll replicate his 2007 stats (.291/24/99/104/7, I can’t believe we dropped him), maybe more likely than Bedard or Haren replicating their 2007 numbers. 

It’s MUCH more likely that Tulo replicates than Joba putting up huge numbers.  They are not gonna be careful not to overwork him and there is also a chance that he pitches out of the pen, in which case he is 100% worthless to us (or anyone else, in a trade).  Wang only gives 3 stats (only wins is excellent), so it impossible for him to put up huge numbers. If a starter and we didn’t make this trade I say, for sure, Joba over Wang (for now)

So you ask what about Tulo vs. Markakis, as both can be had for the same price?

I’d predict that Markakis should probably replicate his numbers from 2007 as well (.300/23/117/97/18), with upside.

Say they both replicate their 2007 numbers, I’d prefer Tulowitzki, due mainly to the position scarcity.

There are, at best, two other SS I’d rather have than Tulo going back into our draft.  Barring unpredictable significant injury prior to keeper declaration, Reyes, Rollins, and Hanley are all being kept.  Jeter is back in, Guillen maybe.  Who else is there?  Tejada?  Young? Peralta? Hardy? Furcal? Renteria? Lugo? Orlando Cabrera? I’ll take Tulo way before any of them.  I don’t think I’m forgetting anyone.  Bobby Crosby?

What about OF of Markakis’ caliber? (By “caliber,” of course, I refer to both the size of their gun barrels and the high quality of their characters… Two meanings… caliber… it’s a homonym… Forget it.)  We are pretty certain (again barring unpredictable major injuries or trades) that Holliday (Summers is keeping Pujols), Sizemore (Lazy Bags are keeping Wright), Beltran (us), Vlad (sleeper is keeping Utley) so that’s four I’d rather have than him right there.  I’m sure there also another 5-10 of similar value I’m not mentioning.

I almost think we should pull the trigger right away before they catch on and maybe decide to keep him over Verlander (to be henceforth referred to as J-Verl).  Same as with Bedard and Haren, I’d probably take Tulo in the 4th/5th round over J-Verl in a scratch draft.

Also, let’s not forget how building our team around offense worked out for us last year. Let’s just say we did the trade for Tulo, our offensive core would be incredible (projections in parentheses.  A-Rod (.300/45/120/120/20), Ichiro (.325/6/70/100/35, Tulo (.290/20/90/100/7), CBY (.260/25/70/80/25).   

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FYI – we won our league last year without drafting a SP till the 8th round.

 What do you think?