Starting Pitching Preview (Part 1)

OK, so here’s how this works. I’m going to run down all the positions; ranked and tiered.  Once I have finished, I am going to post ‘The Sheet.’

‘The Sheet’ is the spreadsheet that I create every year.  When you see it, it will blow your mind.  ‘The Sheet’ wins people leagues. 

So on to the Starting Pitchers!

If you read the About the Addict page, you know some of my philosophy on pitching.  It’s not exactly reinventing the wheel here, but I generally say to draft pitching late, the reasons being that pitching is much more inconsistent than offense on a year to year basis, and better value can be found later in the draft and once the season begins.

Do not interperet this as me saying pitching is not as important as hitting.  On the contrary.  In most league formats, a good starting pitcher has a much greater impact on your overall numbers in those statistics as the good hitter does in theirs, and it can be argued that they are more important.  The issue with pitching is that we don’t know from year to year who those elite guys are going to be. 

For example, let’s look at ESPN’s projected top 10 pitchers for 2007, and look at how they actually fared on ESPN’s end of season player rater (among other starting pitchers)

• Johan Santana (3)
• Chris Carpenter (not rated, only started one game due to injury)
• Roy Halladay (23)
• Roy Oswalt (26)
• Jake Peavy (1)
• Carlos Zambrano (21)
• Brandon Webb (5) 
• Jeremy Bonderman (unrated, but in 28 starts his numbers were: 174.1 IP, 11 W, 145 K, 5.01 ERA, 1.382 WHIP)
• John Lackey (6)
• Ben Sheets (unrated, but in 24 starts his numbers were: 141.1 IP, 12 W, 106 K, 3.82 ERA, 1.238 WHIP)

Now I know it’s a small sample size, but you get the point.  Of ESPN’s Preseason Top 10, only 4 finished in the actual top ten.  6 finished 21st or lower.  If you draft one of the highly coveted starters, the odds are against them actually returning value.  I don’t want to bore you with further stats to back up the point, but it is like this every year.  Granted, there are busts as every position, every year, but there are more at SP than any other. 

Now here is a list of pitchers who were either drafted very late in drafts last year (if drafted at all), their respective positions on ESPN’s year end player rater in 2007, and 2007 stats.

• Javier Vazquez (11, 15W/213K/3.74/1.140)
• Fausto Carmona (12, 19W/137K/3.06/1.209)
• Kelvim Escobar (15, 18W/160K/3.40/1.268)
• Ted Lilly (16, 15W/174K/3.83/1.140)
• James Shields (17, 12W/184K/3.85/1.107)

I’m not even mentioning the mid-round guys (ie Haren, Bedard, Verlander, Lackey, Beckett, Sabathia) who all ended up in the top 10.  The point is that you don’t have to draft starting pitching early (or relievers, but that is another discussion altogether) to form a good staff.

So what is the astute fantasy baseball player to do?  Well, for one you have to know a lot of names going into the draft.  If you are in a 10 team league, you should at least know 80 or so, 100 in a 12, 130 in a 14, etc.).   When you are choosing between Noah Lowry or Dave Bush in the 20th round of the draft, you may be deciding between this year’s Fausto Carmona or ,er, Dave Bush, so you should have as much information possible on as many options as possible to make the most educated decision.

Tier A – The Elite (the guys I won’t get)

1.  Johan Santana -Had an “off” year in 2007 and still finished with 15 Wins, 235 K’s, 3.320 ERA, and a 1.073 WHIP.  Worst case scenario is he replicates.  I think he’ll be better.  I’ll take him around 10

2. Jake Peavy – As mentioned in my top 50 article, he’s getting close to Johan.  Ignore his ERA from 2006 and he has 3 great years in a row.  It’s tough to predict wins, but figure 15-19, 215 K’s, ERA under 3 and a WHIP close to 1.

Tier B – The Aces (the guys I’d love to have but probably won’t be able to draft because I’ll be taking all offense the first 5-6 rounds)

3. Brandon Webb – Had a nice bump in K’s in 2007, jumping up to 194, while posting solid ERA and WHIP for the 4^th year in a row. His overall numbers were actually better than his 2006 Cy Young campaign.

4. CC Sabathia – Some fear the portly lefty may start to break down physically, but he has very smooth mechanics. Has 7 full seasons under his rather large belt, and is only 27 years old. He entered his prime with a Cy Young in 2007, and will probably put up similar numbers in 2008 (Think 17/200/3.10/1.100)

5. Erik Bedard – Missed about a month and finished with 221 K’s, building off his huge 2^nd half in 2006. He’s shown statistical improvement in each of the last 4 years. I don’t know if he can get any better than 2007, because when healthy, he may have been the #1 pitcher in fantasy, but he should be a good bet for solid numbers. He is a bit of an injury risk, but really, all pitchers are to a degree.

6. Dan Haren – Many correctly predicted he’d be the breakout pitcher of 2007. Now the question is how does he follow that up? A move to a contender in the NL means I expect he improves his numbers across the board, and could be in the running for a Cy Young.

7. John Lackey – After consecutive seasons of remarkably similar numbers in 2005 and 2006, Lackey set career bests in ERA (3.01), WHIP (1.210), and Wins (19) in 2007. One thing to note is that his strikeout totals and rates have decreased the last 3 years (199/8.57>190/7.86>178/7.19).

8. Josh Beckett – The first 20 game winner in baseball since 2005, Beckett found a comfort level in his 2^nd season in Boston, and had the best full season of his career. He’s still pretty young (27) and it is actually possible he could improve in 2008. He’ll probably miss a few starts (he made 30 in 07) but still capable of anchoring your staff.

9. Justin Verlander – I’ll admit, I did not think J-Verl was gonna be that good in 2007. I thought coming off his rookie season where he almost doubled his (college and minor league) career maximum innings, he was due for a breakdown/sophomore slump. I was dead wrong. He improved his numbers across the board and could do so again in 2008.

10. Cole Hamels – A bit of an injury risk, but this guy has #1 overall potential. Significantly improved his walk rate, walking 5 fewer batters (43) in 2007, than he did in 50 fewer innings in 2006 (48). If he pitches 200 innings, he’s a very good bet for 200 K’s.

Tier C – The Other Aces (the Guys I’d be happy to have anchoring my staff and who should cost much less than the Tier B guys)

11. Scott Kazmir – he may go for as much as the aforementioned pitchers, and may post better K totals than all of them (led the AL with 238 last year) but his awful WHIP (1.379) knocks him down a tier for me. Kind of like the Adam Dunn of pitchers.

12. Aaron Harang – the Harangatang’s Numbers over the last 2 years are nearly identical. Year 3 of 16 W, 215 K’s, 3.5oish ERA, and 1.20ish WHIP coming right up! If he was on a better team he’d be ranked higher.

13. Carlos Zambrano – Was a big disappointment to many owners last year, but he overcame a very bad start to post respectable numbers. You’ll be able to get him much later this year than in years past, so he could be an excellent value pick if he returns to his 2003-2006 form.

14. Chris Young – Another pitcher who has shown steady improvement the last 3 years. At 6’10″, he’s an injury risk, but if he can stay healthy, he could be the breakout pitcher of 2008.

15. Felix Hernandez – After coming out the gate in 2007 guns ablazing, King Felix got hurt and then went on to put up one of the more inconsistent season’s for a pitcher in recent history. At the end, his numbers were decent (3.94 ERA, 14 W, 165 K’s) but it was a roller-coaster ride getting there. People have been waiting for this 21 year old (22 in April) to break out for 3 years now. The wait will be over in 2008. This is the year he puts it all together.

16. John Smoltz – Since returning to the rotation in 2005, people have questioned whether this is the year the 40-year-old, future Hall of Famer will start to decline. It hasn’t happened yet, his three year hiatus in the bullpen seemed to preserve his arm, and I wouldn’t bet on the ride ending in 2008. He’s old, but still very solid.

17. Roy Oswalt – Still a solid pitcher, but his K’s have declined the last 4 years (206>184>166>154). That could be attributed to him becoming a better pitcher in “real baseball”, but in fantasy, it’s all about the numbers. His reputation supersedes his production, but he’s also good enough that he can bounce back. He’ll probably go higher than he should.

18. Matt Cain – It must have been real frustrating to be in his shoes last year, going 6-17, while posting good numbers everywhere else. Expect improvement from the 23 year old stud across the board. He’s an exceptional talent and should have better luck in 2008.

19. Daisuke Matsuzaka – The ERA and WHIP were atrocious, but he still struck out over 200 in his first season in the majors, while winning 15 games. He pitched real well in the post season, and I expect him to make the necessary adjustments needed to give up fewer base runners and runs.

21-50

Due to the tremendous amount of positive feedback I received on my initial Top 20 rankings, I have decided to include my current #21 – 50 rankings.  In the coming weeks I’ll be doing positional ranks. 

 21.     Brandon Phillips:  30-30 at 2B.  He probably should be higher than this, maybe ahead of Soriano, but this is only the first time we’ve seen him do this.  Probably not the last though. 

22.     Mark Teixeira: Started off a little slow once again in 07, but he bounced back pretty quickly.  Missed a few weeks and still finished with very good numbers, .300/30/104/86/0.  Assuming healthy and you can deal with a slow starter, he’s a lock at 35-100 with upside.  

23.     Ichiro: The only reason he is not higher is because unless he hits .350 (which I’m not saying is not likely), he’s a tick below Crawford.   LOCK at .315 AVG, 100 runs, and 40 SB’s.   

24.     Magglio Ordonez: I think a lot of “experts” may rank him higher than this, but he’s not going to hit .363 again and I expect the power numbers to drop as well.  He’s gonna be really good, think .300/25/110/90/4, but not 2007 good. 

25.     Justin Morneau:  I think this guy is gonna be a lot (numbers wise) like pre-2007 Carlos Delgado.  Every year he’ll get a very streaky .280/35/100 (great months, bad months, no in betweens), but he’s gonna have 2-3 years where he just goes off (ie 2006).   After a down year in 2007, are we in for a resurgence?  

26.     Robinson Cano: As a staunch supporter of the New York Yankees, I watch a lot of games.  I’ve seen a good majority of Robinson Cano’s MLB at bats.  This guy is INSANE!  When he’s on (not like the first half of 07, more like the 2^nd) he can hit any pitch to any part of the ballpark. Hit a ridiculous .343 after the All Star break, with 13 HR and 57 RBI.  If the Yankees wise up and move him to the #5 hole, between A-Rod and Posada, the blossoming 2B is gonna hit .320/25/110/100/5 and he’s gonna win a batting title one of these years. 

27.     Lance Berkman: The #1 multi-position eligible player in the game (1B, OF) had an off 2007, but still hit .278/34/102.  With the acquisition of Miguel Tejada and Kaz Matsui to infuse the lineup, Lance’s numbers should improve.   

28.     BJ Upton:  The #2 multi-position eligible player (2B, OF) is an electrifying talent that has #1 overall potential.  He may not have the patience yet to meet his 2007 batting average (.300), but he’s a good enough hitter to hit .285 with 30-30 potential.  Enjoy the 2B eligibility this year, but it is probably the last as he’s developed nicely as a CF. 

29.     Adam Dunn: Dunn owners were pleasantly surprised with a .264 average last year.  He’s hit exactly 40 home runs in each of the last 3 seasons, 46 the season before that.  He’s gonna kill your AVG, but he’s gonna give you excellent power numbers and is a very valuable player.  If he can hit .260 again, you’ll be fine. 

30.     Aramis Ramirez:  He missed about 30 games and still had excellent numbers.  Lock for .285/30/100/90. 

31.     Derek Jeter: It was a tough decision going with him over Carlos Guillen, but I think his downside is pretty close to Guillen’s upside.  At worst he’ll do what he did last year, .322/12/73/102/15, but he also has the potential to go .340/15/95/120/25. 

32.     Carlos Guillen:  Let’s call him 31(a). One of the most underrated players in fantasy baseball.  He’s gonna move to 1B this year and he’ll give you nice 5 category production.  Think .300/18/90/100/18.   

33.     Bobby Abreu:  Another Yankee lefty who endured a disastrous first half, but was en fuego after the break to give him nice overall numbers of the .283/16/101/123/25.  I think his numbers will be right there again this year, but you’ll be getting them more consistently.  A very nice player (I think Ari will disagree though). 

34.     Curtis Granderson:  To be honest, I did not realize how good a year he had last year until a couple weeks ago.  He probably deserves to be much higher on this list.  A very good shot to repeat his .300/23/74/122/26, 2007 numbers. 

35.     Carlos Lee:  One of these years he’s gonna be too fat to be good.  Problem is, each year he rakes.  I think the days of 20 steals are over, but he’s a lock at .285/30/110/90.  He’s just about done it the last 5 years.

36.     Brian Roberts:  The last of the good 2B’s.  Big drop-off after him.  Speed Demon.  Think .280/10/70/100/40. 

37.     Carlos Pena: 2007’s biggest surprise.  Won’t be that good again, but he’ll be close.  

38.     Garret Atkins:  There’s something about him I don’t like, but it’s definitely not his back to back campaigns of at least .300/25/110 or his home ballpark. 

39.     Victor Martinez:  Let me preface this with that I would never draft a catcher this high.  BUT, if I would, it would be him.  Projection: .300/18/90/80.  

40.     Troy Tulowitzki:  We cut him early last year.  Big mistake.  Imagine his numbers if he didn’t hit .244 in April?  In case you can’t, I think we’ll see them in 2008.  

41.     Jason Bay:  My pick for the 2008 Fantasy Superstar OF Who is Going to be Drafted Way Too Late and Win His Owners Leagues This Year Award.  Previous winners include Gary Sheffield (2007), Vernon Wells (2006).   

42.     Eric Byrnes:  Raise your hand if you predicted he’d go .286/21/83/103/50 in 2007? (Anyone? Anyone?) Raise your hand if you think he’ll do it again in 2008? (Anyone? Anyone?)  Raise your hand if you think he’ll come close (Ed. Note: I am raising my hand) 

43.     Nick Markakis:  A really nice young developing hitter.  Kind of reminds me a little of Paul O’Neill.  Should hit .310/25/100/100/15 for years to come. 

44.     Alex Rios: He teased us in 2006, but he really put out in 2007.  I don’t know how much upside he really has, but he should be able to duplicate his .297/24/85/114/17 statline. 

45.     Derek Lee: Had a decent year in 2007, coming back from a wrist injury.  The power stroke returned in the second half.  I think he should be safe for .300/30/100/90.  I think the days of 15 steals are gone though. 

46.     Russell Martin:  Had an incredible 2007, almost going 20-20 (finished at 19-21).  I don’t know if I’d bet on him doing it, but he should come close again.   

47.     Manny Ramirez:  Manny has regressed statistically in each of the last 2 years.  It can probably be attributed to poor health, and that is a legitimate concern for 2008.  However, if he can stay healthy, when he plays he rakes.   

48.     Paul Konerko:  We knew going into 2007 he wouldn’t hit .300 again, but we didn’t expect .259.  Nevertheless, he did finish with 31 homers and 90 RBI.  Again, if that’s a bad year, sign me up! 

49.     Gary Sheffield:  Got off to a terrible start but was just plain STUPID from May-July.  Then he got hurt and never really regained his stroke.  He should be healthy to start the year, so I expect a typical Gary Sheffield season.  Think .290/30/110/90/15.  Note that unless you are in a 10 game eligibility league, he’s a DH only.

50.     Jake Peavy:  Best pitcher in the game last year.  3 straight years of 200 K’s.  Give me one more year like last and you jump up to Santana land.

Just Missed: Miguel Tejada, Chipper Jones, Adrian Gonzalez

Top 50 Positional Breakdown:  2 SP, 2 C, 9 1B, 5 2B, 6 SS, 6 3B, 19 OF, 3 DH