Starting Pitching Preview (Part 1)

OK, so here’s how this works. I’m going to run down all the positions; ranked and tiered.  Once I have finished, I am going to post ‘The Sheet.’

‘The Sheet’ is the spreadsheet that I create every year.  When you see it, it will blow your mind.  ‘The Sheet’ wins people leagues. 

So on to the Starting Pitchers!

If you read the About the Addict page, you know some of my philosophy on pitching.  It’s not exactly reinventing the wheel here, but I generally say to draft pitching late, the reasons being that pitching is much more inconsistent than offense on a year to year basis, and better value can be found later in the draft and once the season begins.

Do not interperet this as me saying pitching is not as important as hitting.  On the contrary.  In most league formats, a good starting pitcher has a much greater impact on your overall numbers in those statistics as the good hitter does in theirs, and it can be argued that they are more important.  The issue with pitching is that we don’t know from year to year who those elite guys are going to be. 

For example, let’s look at ESPN’s projected top 10 pitchers for 2007, and look at how they actually fared on ESPN’s end of season player rater (among other starting pitchers)

• Johan Santana (3)
• Chris Carpenter (not rated, only started one game due to injury)
• Roy Halladay (23)
• Roy Oswalt (26)
• Jake Peavy (1)
• Carlos Zambrano (21)
• Brandon Webb (5) 
• Jeremy Bonderman (unrated, but in 28 starts his numbers were: 174.1 IP, 11 W, 145 K, 5.01 ERA, 1.382 WHIP)
• John Lackey (6)
• Ben Sheets (unrated, but in 24 starts his numbers were: 141.1 IP, 12 W, 106 K, 3.82 ERA, 1.238 WHIP)

Now I know it’s a small sample size, but you get the point.  Of ESPN’s Preseason Top 10, only 4 finished in the actual top ten.  6 finished 21st or lower.  If you draft one of the highly coveted starters, the odds are against them actually returning value.  I don’t want to bore you with further stats to back up the point, but it is like this every year.  Granted, there are busts as every position, every year, but there are more at SP than any other. 

Now here is a list of pitchers who were either drafted very late in drafts last year (if drafted at all), their respective positions on ESPN’s year end player rater in 2007, and 2007 stats.

• Javier Vazquez (11, 15W/213K/3.74/1.140)
• Fausto Carmona (12, 19W/137K/3.06/1.209)
• Kelvim Escobar (15, 18W/160K/3.40/1.268)
• Ted Lilly (16, 15W/174K/3.83/1.140)
• James Shields (17, 12W/184K/3.85/1.107)

I’m not even mentioning the mid-round guys (ie Haren, Bedard, Verlander, Lackey, Beckett, Sabathia) who all ended up in the top 10.  The point is that you don’t have to draft starting pitching early (or relievers, but that is another discussion altogether) to form a good staff.

So what is the astute fantasy baseball player to do?  Well, for one you have to know a lot of names going into the draft.  If you are in a 10 team league, you should at least know 80 or so, 100 in a 12, 130 in a 14, etc.).   When you are choosing between Noah Lowry or Dave Bush in the 20th round of the draft, you may be deciding between this year’s Fausto Carmona or ,er, Dave Bush, so you should have as much information possible on as many options as possible to make the most educated decision.

Tier A – The Elite (the guys I won’t get)

1.  Johan Santana -Had an “off” year in 2007 and still finished with 15 Wins, 235 K’s, 3.320 ERA, and a 1.073 WHIP.  Worst case scenario is he replicates.  I think he’ll be better.  I’ll take him around 10

2. Jake Peavy – As mentioned in my top 50 article, he’s getting close to Johan.  Ignore his ERA from 2006 and he has 3 great years in a row.  It’s tough to predict wins, but figure 15-19, 215 K’s, ERA under 3 and a WHIP close to 1.

Tier B – The Aces (the guys I’d love to have but probably won’t be able to draft because I’ll be taking all offense the first 5-6 rounds)

3. Brandon Webb – Had a nice bump in K’s in 2007, jumping up to 194, while posting solid ERA and WHIP for the 4^th year in a row. His overall numbers were actually better than his 2006 Cy Young campaign.

4. CC Sabathia – Some fear the portly lefty may start to break down physically, but he has very smooth mechanics. Has 7 full seasons under his rather large belt, and is only 27 years old. He entered his prime with a Cy Young in 2007, and will probably put up similar numbers in 2008 (Think 17/200/3.10/1.100)

5. Erik Bedard – Missed about a month and finished with 221 K’s, building off his huge 2^nd half in 2006. He’s shown statistical improvement in each of the last 4 years. I don’t know if he can get any better than 2007, because when healthy, he may have been the #1 pitcher in fantasy, but he should be a good bet for solid numbers. He is a bit of an injury risk, but really, all pitchers are to a degree.

6. Dan Haren – Many correctly predicted he’d be the breakout pitcher of 2007. Now the question is how does he follow that up? A move to a contender in the NL means I expect he improves his numbers across the board, and could be in the running for a Cy Young.

7. John Lackey – After consecutive seasons of remarkably similar numbers in 2005 and 2006, Lackey set career bests in ERA (3.01), WHIP (1.210), and Wins (19) in 2007. One thing to note is that his strikeout totals and rates have decreased the last 3 years (199/8.57>190/7.86>178/7.19).

8. Josh Beckett – The first 20 game winner in baseball since 2005, Beckett found a comfort level in his 2^nd season in Boston, and had the best full season of his career. He’s still pretty young (27) and it is actually possible he could improve in 2008. He’ll probably miss a few starts (he made 30 in 07) but still capable of anchoring your staff.

9. Justin Verlander – I’ll admit, I did not think J-Verl was gonna be that good in 2007. I thought coming off his rookie season where he almost doubled his (college and minor league) career maximum innings, he was due for a breakdown/sophomore slump. I was dead wrong. He improved his numbers across the board and could do so again in 2008.

10. Cole Hamels – A bit of an injury risk, but this guy has #1 overall potential. Significantly improved his walk rate, walking 5 fewer batters (43) in 2007, than he did in 50 fewer innings in 2006 (48). If he pitches 200 innings, he’s a very good bet for 200 K’s.

Tier C – The Other Aces (the Guys I’d be happy to have anchoring my staff and who should cost much less than the Tier B guys)

11. Scott Kazmir – he may go for as much as the aforementioned pitchers, and may post better K totals than all of them (led the AL with 238 last year) but his awful WHIP (1.379) knocks him down a tier for me. Kind of like the Adam Dunn of pitchers.

12. Aaron Harang – the Harangatang’s Numbers over the last 2 years are nearly identical. Year 3 of 16 W, 215 K’s, 3.5oish ERA, and 1.20ish WHIP coming right up! If he was on a better team he’d be ranked higher.

13. Carlos Zambrano – Was a big disappointment to many owners last year, but he overcame a very bad start to post respectable numbers. You’ll be able to get him much later this year than in years past, so he could be an excellent value pick if he returns to his 2003-2006 form.

14. Chris Young – Another pitcher who has shown steady improvement the last 3 years. At 6’10″, he’s an injury risk, but if he can stay healthy, he could be the breakout pitcher of 2008.

15. Felix Hernandez – After coming out the gate in 2007 guns ablazing, King Felix got hurt and then went on to put up one of the more inconsistent season’s for a pitcher in recent history. At the end, his numbers were decent (3.94 ERA, 14 W, 165 K’s) but it was a roller-coaster ride getting there. People have been waiting for this 21 year old (22 in April) to break out for 3 years now. The wait will be over in 2008. This is the year he puts it all together.

16. John Smoltz – Since returning to the rotation in 2005, people have questioned whether this is the year the 40-year-old, future Hall of Famer will start to decline. It hasn’t happened yet, his three year hiatus in the bullpen seemed to preserve his arm, and I wouldn’t bet on the ride ending in 2008. He’s old, but still very solid.

17. Roy Oswalt – Still a solid pitcher, but his K’s have declined the last 4 years (206>184>166>154). That could be attributed to him becoming a better pitcher in “real baseball”, but in fantasy, it’s all about the numbers. His reputation supersedes his production, but he’s also good enough that he can bounce back. He’ll probably go higher than he should.

18. Matt Cain – It must have been real frustrating to be in his shoes last year, going 6-17, while posting good numbers everywhere else. Expect improvement from the 23 year old stud across the board. He’s an exceptional talent and should have better luck in 2008.

19. Daisuke Matsuzaka – The ERA and WHIP were atrocious, but he still struck out over 200 in his first season in the majors, while winning 15 games. He pitched real well in the post season, and I expect him to make the necessary adjustments needed to give up fewer base runners and runs.

Keeper Trade

So as I mentioned in my original post about keepers, I have to decide for my C Tier between Dan Haren and Erik Bedard, and between Wang and Joba for my D.  Well, that decision may get a little easier. 

In speaking to another team in my league, I was offered either Nick Markakis or Troy Tulowitzki for Bedard.  This other team currently has Hamels as their C keeper, and views Bedard as an upgrade on him (not Haren though).  They are keeping Justin Verlander as their D and BJ Upton as their E, which makes these guys expendable.

My teammate Ari is away for the next few days, so I sent him this email explaining why I think we should make the deal.  I’d love to hear what others think.

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Here’s why I think we should trade Bedard for Tulo:

We still have Haren who is at worst a tick lower than Bedard, and we can’t keep both.   You could actually make the case that Haren may be more valuable. Obviously Bedard had a nice edge in K’s last year, but at 29 on opening day, has never thrown more than 196 innings (2006) and has spent at least 1 month on the DL in every season but 1 (2006).  Haren, 27 on opening day, has thrown at least 217 innings the last three years and has never been on the DL.  Bedard MAY be the better pitcher, but Haren is DEFINITELY younger and healthier.  They are really fairly equal, so really this deal boils down to whether you’d rather have Tulo or Joba/ Wang.

In NO scratch draft for 2008 would I EVER select Joba or Wang over Tulo.  In a regular draft this year, Tulo is probably going in the 4th/5th round (Mock Draft Central current ADP is 45).  I would probably even select Tulo before I’d take Bedard or Haren this year.  Other than a sophomore slump, I think it is fair to assume he’ll replicate his 2007 stats (.291/24/99/104/7, I can’t believe we dropped him), maybe more likely than Bedard or Haren replicating their 2007 numbers. 

It’s MUCH more likely that Tulo replicates than Joba putting up huge numbers.  They are not gonna be careful not to overwork him and there is also a chance that he pitches out of the pen, in which case he is 100% worthless to us (or anyone else, in a trade).  Wang only gives 3 stats (only wins is excellent), so it impossible for him to put up huge numbers. If a starter and we didn’t make this trade I say, for sure, Joba over Wang (for now)

So you ask what about Tulo vs. Markakis, as both can be had for the same price?

I’d predict that Markakis should probably replicate his numbers from 2007 as well (.300/23/117/97/18), with upside.

Say they both replicate their 2007 numbers, I’d prefer Tulowitzki, due mainly to the position scarcity.

There are, at best, two other SS I’d rather have than Tulo going back into our draft.  Barring unpredictable significant injury prior to keeper declaration, Reyes, Rollins, and Hanley are all being kept.  Jeter is back in, Guillen maybe.  Who else is there?  Tejada?  Young? Peralta? Hardy? Furcal? Renteria? Lugo? Orlando Cabrera? I’ll take Tulo way before any of them.  I don’t think I’m forgetting anyone.  Bobby Crosby?

What about OF of Markakis’ caliber? (By “caliber,” of course, I refer to both the size of their gun barrels and the high quality of their characters… Two meanings… caliber… it’s a homonym… Forget it.)  We are pretty certain (again barring unpredictable major injuries or trades) that Holliday (Summers is keeping Pujols), Sizemore (Lazy Bags are keeping Wright), Beltran (us), Vlad (sleeper is keeping Utley) so that’s four I’d rather have than him right there.  I’m sure there also another 5-10 of similar value I’m not mentioning.

I almost think we should pull the trigger right away before they catch on and maybe decide to keep him over Verlander (to be henceforth referred to as J-Verl).  Same as with Bedard and Haren, I’d probably take Tulo in the 4th/5th round over J-Verl in a scratch draft.

Also, let’s not forget how building our team around offense worked out for us last year. Let’s just say we did the trade for Tulo, our offensive core would be incredible (projections in parentheses.  A-Rod (.300/45/120/120/20), Ichiro (.325/6/70/100/35, Tulo (.290/20/90/100/7), CBY (.260/25/70/80/25).   

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FYI – we won our league last year without drafting a SP till the 8th round.

 What do you think?