Starting Pitching Preview (Part 2)

Click here to see Part I.

Tier D – The Almost Aces (The guys who would make an OK #2 or a Very Good #3 on your staff)

20. Fausto Carmona- One of the biggest surprises of 2007. Downside is that he doesn’t strike a lot of guys out (although many seem to think that will come, but you should limit your expectations to no more than 150) and it’s going to be very difficult to win 19 games again.

21. Roy Halladay- Now this may come as a shock to some of you, but Roy Halladay is good, but no different really than Carmona at this point in his career. He is a much better pitcher in “real baseball” than he is in fantasy. He has not struck out 200 batters since 2003 (which can somewhat be attributed to injury). The last 2 seasons, in which he has pitched at least 220 innings, he has 132 and 139 K’s respectively. His ERA and WHIP got worse. He’ll win about 16 games, but you can’t really expect anything more than a 3.50 ERA, a 1.200 WHIP, and 135 K’s.

22. Brett Myers- I was very high on him last year, and was upset I was not able to draft him in any league. Then he became a closer, and adjusted so well to the role that he was disappointed to go back to the rotation when the Phillies acquired Lidge. What can’t be disputed is that Myers is an excellent pitcher. What we don’t know is he’ll respond to being a starter again. I think he’ll be real good, but as the great Mike Siano and Cory Schwartz of MLB Radio’s Fantasy 411 say “Strength Loves Certainty, Weakness Loves Risk.” Can’t yet be counted on to carry your rotation. There’s also always the chance Lidge either sucks or gets hurt, and Myers goes back to closing.

23. Francisco Liriano- An extreme injury risk after missing all of 2007, BUT, you must remember what he did in 2006. In case you forgot, in 16 starts, he went 11-3, with a 1.190 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 112 K’s in 98.2 innings. If he can regain his form, he’ll be a steal for whoever gets him after the 6^th round.

24. Tim Lincecum- FBB’s top rookie hurler from 2007. On a bad team, but in a good park, expect some inconsistency, but his ability to get the strikeout makes him a high-reward player.

25. Kelvim Escobar- A preseason sleeper favorite for years, Escobar FINALLY delivered the goods in 2007, winnings 18 games, striking out 160, with a 3.404 ERA and a 1.268 WHIP. He did battle some minor injuries, and has not cracked the 200 inning barrier since 2004, but he should be a solid middle-of-the-fantasy-rotation-starter in 2008.

26. James Shields- Another 2007 deep sleeper pick and eventual breakout. Just a flash in the pan, or can he do it again? (I’m a poet and I didn’t even know it) On a pretty crappy team, so may not win more than a dozen games, but he’ll have a solid ERA and WHIP and post excellent strikeout numbers, per his minor and major league ratio of about 7.7 K’s per 9 innings.

27. Ian Snell- On a terrible team, so he probably won’t win more the 12 games either, but should give decent ERA and WHIP to go with excellent strikeout numbers. Pretty similar to Shields (age, situation, stats). I take Shields because I like his team a little better.

28. Javier Vazquez- This is probably a case of me holding a grudge to an extent, but let me explain. In 2004, coming to the Yankees off a season where he struck out 241 batters, I thought he was gonna be amazing. To put it plainly, he sucked. He then went to Chicago, and while posting very good strikeout totals, he had dreadful ERA and WHIP for two years. Last year, he struck out 214 guys, while posting a 3.739 ERA and excellent 1.140 WHIP. He was amazing last year, but I despise him. I think we’ll probably see the 2005-2006 version in 2008.

29. Rich Hill- He was good in 2007. Very inconsistent, but overall good. People think he’s younger than he is. He’ll actually be 28 on Opening Day, so I don’t think there is too much upside here.

30. Curt Schilling- Much like Halladay, he’s a much better “real baseball” pitcher than he is a “fantasy baseball” pitcher. He’s getting older (41) he cannot be counted on to stay healthy, and unlike Roger Clemens, he doesn’t take steroids. He’s still good, but no stud.

31. Jeremy Bonderman- Coming off 4 years in a row, where Bonderman showed improvement in just about every statistical category we FBB Addict’s care about, a lot of people, myself included, thought this guy was gonna explode in 2007. He responded with the worst season since his rookie campaign of 2003. What’s amazing is that even with 5 season’s under his belt, Bonderman is still only 25 years old. A prime candidate for a really nice bounce back, but it’s hard to forget what he did last year.

32. Andy Pettitte- He’s not going to put up amazing numbers by any means, but he’s a very solid and consistent option. Should be a good source of wins, ERA, WHIP, and not hurt you too much in K’s (think 150).

33. Jeff Francis- When was the last time you saw a Colorado Rockie starting pitcher in the top 35? When was the last time Colorado had a pitcher as good as Jeff Francis? Because of his home park, it’s gonna be difficult for him to put up anything but an OK ERA and WHIP, but he should post nice win and strikeout numbers.

34. Joba Chamberlain- Obviously if he ends up in the bullpen, he’s not ranked this high, but he showed us all that he was something special last year. Until a swarm of midges kept him from shutting down the Indians in the ALDS, Joba was untouchable, perhaps the most dominant pitcher in the league the last two months of the season. The Yanks are gonna be very careful with their prized phenom, and he’s young, so expect some inconsistency, but he has the potential to become of the most dominant pitchers in the game, perhaps as early as this year.

35. Chien Ming Wang- I’ve spoken about it already in this space, but it warrants saying again that he’s very limited as a fantasy starter, because he doesn’t strike anyone out. Nevertheless, he pitches deep into games, will win close to 20 (19 the last 2 seasons) and provide good ERA and WHIP.

36. Adam Wainwright- One of my big sleepers last year, Wainwright overcame a terrible April and May, and quietly delivered the goods, posting a 2.71 ERA and a 7 K/9 after the All-Star break. I think he’s primed for a big breakout this year. Could win 16 and strike out 170.

37. Brad Penny- He’s been relatively healthy the last couple of year and has developed into a nice pitcher in LA. Should win around 15 games and strike out 145 with a mid-3′s ERA, but a terrible WHIP (1.3ish)

38. Tim Hudson- After a dreadful 2006, Hudson turned back the clock to his Oakland heyday in 2007, and was a very good pitcher again. Much like others in this tier, he relies a lot on the defense behind him and does not get a lot of K’s, but he should win a nice amount of games while providing a mid 3′s ERA and 1.2ish WHIP.

Tier E- The Rotation Fillers (some injury risks, a few sleepers, some underrated, and some overrated.  None of these guys should be one of your top 2, and are best suited as 4′s and 5′s.)

39. Rich Harden – If he wasn’t always hurt, he’d be top 10, but he’s always hurt. The very definition of the High Risk- High Reward player.

40. Ben Sheets – ditto

41. Yovani Gallardo- Another top rookie hurler from 2007, expect inconsistency, but the talent is legit. He can get the strikeout, and I dig the strikeout.

42. John Maine- I like his demeanor on the mound. I’ve seen him dominate and get lit up. Always the same look. He may surprise a lot of people this year.

43. Joe Blanton- Third Year starter. 27 years old. Significant improvement across the board in 2007. All signs point to a breakout in 2008.

44. AJ Burnett- See Harden, Rich and Sheets, Ben.

45. Jered Weaver- After he exploded on the scene in 2006, he had a solid, yet injury affected 2007. His funky mechanics make him an injury risk moving forward as well, but we should see improvement in 2008.

46. Dustin McGowan- Had an excellent 2^nd half in 2007. Could be on the cusp of a breakthrough in 2008.

47. Ted Lilly- Had an excellent year in 2007, clearly benefiting from the move to the NL. Still, I’m not betting on the 31 year old to replicate his career year in 2008. He’ll probably regress across the board, but he’s still a nice end of rotation type.

48. Phil Hughes- Right now, I rank him as if he is still a Yankee, but if he’s traded for Santana, he drops down a little due to the downgrade in team (translation-wins).

49. Dontrelle Willis- Another case of a pitcher who is much better in “real baseball” than in fantasy. He’s coming off 2 really bad years in a row and moving to the AL. I think he’s gonna get lit up. Someone will overpay for him, but don’t let it be you.

50. Randy Johnson- When he was healthy, he was actually quite effective in 2007. Problem is, he was rarely healthy. At 44, and coming off 2 back-surgeries in the span of a year, he cannot be counted on.

51. Chris Carpenter- He’s probably not going to be ready till August, but he was the best pitcher in the NL before getting hurt on Opening Day last year. He’ll have a lot of time to heal, and if you have the patience to see him sit on your DL all year, he could be factor down the stretch.

52. Bronson Arroyo- I was really high on him in 2007, and he started off great, hit a big rough patch in the middle of the year, and then finished really strong. His bullpen also hurt him a lot. Assuming they give him a little more support in 2008, he could return to his 2006 form.

53. Mark Buerhle – Rebounded nicely in 2007, but that was a contract year. Doesn’t get the K’s but a nice option for the end of your rotation.

Tier F- The Matchup Guys (Unless they explode, should only be used in favorable matchups.  Shouldn’t be fixures, regardless of opponent.  Also, they are getting shorter blurbs J)

54. John Garland- Chien Ming Wang-lite

55. Ervin Santana- Terribly inconsistent, but loads of talent.

56. Randy Wolf- Injury Risk, but favorable situation in San Diego.

57. Chris Capuano- Never really built of his 2005 breakout.

58. Pedro Martinez- Intriguing, but I think he’s done.

59. Jeremy Gurthrie- One of my big sleepers for 2008.

60. Barry Zito- Note: It is no longer 2002

61. Gil Meche- He’s better than his rank as far as talent goes, but he’s on KC, which is never a good thing.

62. Noah Lowry- Consistently mediocre.

63. Chad Billingsley- Inconsistent, but tremendous upside

64. Daniel Cabrera- They very definition of inconsistency. He’ll frustrate you to no end.

Tier G- The Rest

65. Boof Bonser

66. Tom Gorzellany

67. Mike Mussina

68. Orlando Hernandez

69. Kenny Rogers

70. Clay Buchholz

71. Adam Miller

72. Dave Bush

73. Homer Bailey

74. Mark Prior

75. Shawn Marcum

76. Ubaldo Jimenez

77. John Lester

78. Scott Baker

79. Oliver Perez

80. Derek Lowe

81. Andrew Miller

82. Greg Maddux

83. Jason Schmidt

84. Zack Grienke

85. Taylor Buchholz

86. Bartolo Colon

87. Matt Garza

88. Scott Olsen

89. Freddy Garcia

90. Cliff Lee

91. John Patterson

92. Jose Contreras

93. Livan Hernandez

94. Jeremy Sowers

95. Zach Duke

96. Nate Robertson

97. Josh Johnson

98. Jason Jennings

99. Anibal Sanchez

100. Anthony Reyes

101. Tom Glavine

102. Chuck James

103. Mike Pelfrey

104. Doug Davis

105. Brandon McCarthy

106. Jeff Suppan

107. Kevin Millwood

108. Jorge Sosa

109. Mark Mulder

110. Carlos Silva

111. Horacio Ramirez

112. Esteban Loaiza

113. Paul Byrd

114. Jon Leiber

115. Matt Morris

116. Gustavo Chacin

117. Jake Westbrook

118. Tim Wakefield

119. Adam Eaton

120. Odalis Perez

121. Jason Marquis

122. David Wells

123. Jeff Weaver

Starting Pitching Preview (Part 1)

OK, so here’s how this works. I’m going to run down all the positions; ranked and tiered.  Once I have finished, I am going to post ‘The Sheet.’

‘The Sheet’ is the spreadsheet that I create every year.  When you see it, it will blow your mind.  ‘The Sheet’ wins people leagues. 

So on to the Starting Pitchers!

If you read the About the Addict page, you know some of my philosophy on pitching.  It’s not exactly reinventing the wheel here, but I generally say to draft pitching late, the reasons being that pitching is much more inconsistent than offense on a year to year basis, and better value can be found later in the draft and once the season begins.

Do not interperet this as me saying pitching is not as important as hitting.  On the contrary.  In most league formats, a good starting pitcher has a much greater impact on your overall numbers in those statistics as the good hitter does in theirs, and it can be argued that they are more important.  The issue with pitching is that we don’t know from year to year who those elite guys are going to be. 

For example, let’s look at ESPN’s projected top 10 pitchers for 2007, and look at how they actually fared on ESPN’s end of season player rater (among other starting pitchers)

• Johan Santana (3)
• Chris Carpenter (not rated, only started one game due to injury)
• Roy Halladay (23)
• Roy Oswalt (26)
• Jake Peavy (1)
• Carlos Zambrano (21)
• Brandon Webb (5) 
• Jeremy Bonderman (unrated, but in 28 starts his numbers were: 174.1 IP, 11 W, 145 K, 5.01 ERA, 1.382 WHIP)
• John Lackey (6)
• Ben Sheets (unrated, but in 24 starts his numbers were: 141.1 IP, 12 W, 106 K, 3.82 ERA, 1.238 WHIP)

Now I know it’s a small sample size, but you get the point.  Of ESPN’s Preseason Top 10, only 4 finished in the actual top ten.  6 finished 21st or lower.  If you draft one of the highly coveted starters, the odds are against them actually returning value.  I don’t want to bore you with further stats to back up the point, but it is like this every year.  Granted, there are busts as every position, every year, but there are more at SP than any other. 

Now here is a list of pitchers who were either drafted very late in drafts last year (if drafted at all), their respective positions on ESPN’s year end player rater in 2007, and 2007 stats.

• Javier Vazquez (11, 15W/213K/3.74/1.140)
• Fausto Carmona (12, 19W/137K/3.06/1.209)
• Kelvim Escobar (15, 18W/160K/3.40/1.268)
• Ted Lilly (16, 15W/174K/3.83/1.140)
• James Shields (17, 12W/184K/3.85/1.107)

I’m not even mentioning the mid-round guys (ie Haren, Bedard, Verlander, Lackey, Beckett, Sabathia) who all ended up in the top 10.  The point is that you don’t have to draft starting pitching early (or relievers, but that is another discussion altogether) to form a good staff.

So what is the astute fantasy baseball player to do?  Well, for one you have to know a lot of names going into the draft.  If you are in a 10 team league, you should at least know 80 or so, 100 in a 12, 130 in a 14, etc.).   When you are choosing between Noah Lowry or Dave Bush in the 20th round of the draft, you may be deciding between this year’s Fausto Carmona or ,er, Dave Bush, so you should have as much information possible on as many options as possible to make the most educated decision.

Tier A – The Elite (the guys I won’t get)

1.  Johan Santana -Had an “off” year in 2007 and still finished with 15 Wins, 235 K’s, 3.320 ERA, and a 1.073 WHIP.  Worst case scenario is he replicates.  I think he’ll be better.  I’ll take him around 10

2. Jake Peavy – As mentioned in my top 50 article, he’s getting close to Johan.  Ignore his ERA from 2006 and he has 3 great years in a row.  It’s tough to predict wins, but figure 15-19, 215 K’s, ERA under 3 and a WHIP close to 1.

Tier B – The Aces (the guys I’d love to have but probably won’t be able to draft because I’ll be taking all offense the first 5-6 rounds)

3. Brandon Webb – Had a nice bump in K’s in 2007, jumping up to 194, while posting solid ERA and WHIP for the 4^th year in a row. His overall numbers were actually better than his 2006 Cy Young campaign.

4. CC Sabathia – Some fear the portly lefty may start to break down physically, but he has very smooth mechanics. Has 7 full seasons under his rather large belt, and is only 27 years old. He entered his prime with a Cy Young in 2007, and will probably put up similar numbers in 2008 (Think 17/200/3.10/1.100)

5. Erik Bedard – Missed about a month and finished with 221 K’s, building off his huge 2^nd half in 2006. He’s shown statistical improvement in each of the last 4 years. I don’t know if he can get any better than 2007, because when healthy, he may have been the #1 pitcher in fantasy, but he should be a good bet for solid numbers. He is a bit of an injury risk, but really, all pitchers are to a degree.

6. Dan Haren – Many correctly predicted he’d be the breakout pitcher of 2007. Now the question is how does he follow that up? A move to a contender in the NL means I expect he improves his numbers across the board, and could be in the running for a Cy Young.

7. John Lackey – After consecutive seasons of remarkably similar numbers in 2005 and 2006, Lackey set career bests in ERA (3.01), WHIP (1.210), and Wins (19) in 2007. One thing to note is that his strikeout totals and rates have decreased the last 3 years (199/8.57>190/7.86>178/7.19).

8. Josh Beckett – The first 20 game winner in baseball since 2005, Beckett found a comfort level in his 2^nd season in Boston, and had the best full season of his career. He’s still pretty young (27) and it is actually possible he could improve in 2008. He’ll probably miss a few starts (he made 30 in 07) but still capable of anchoring your staff.

9. Justin Verlander – I’ll admit, I did not think J-Verl was gonna be that good in 2007. I thought coming off his rookie season where he almost doubled his (college and minor league) career maximum innings, he was due for a breakdown/sophomore slump. I was dead wrong. He improved his numbers across the board and could do so again in 2008.

10. Cole Hamels – A bit of an injury risk, but this guy has #1 overall potential. Significantly improved his walk rate, walking 5 fewer batters (43) in 2007, than he did in 50 fewer innings in 2006 (48). If he pitches 200 innings, he’s a very good bet for 200 K’s.

Tier C – The Other Aces (the Guys I’d be happy to have anchoring my staff and who should cost much less than the Tier B guys)

11. Scott Kazmir – he may go for as much as the aforementioned pitchers, and may post better K totals than all of them (led the AL with 238 last year) but his awful WHIP (1.379) knocks him down a tier for me. Kind of like the Adam Dunn of pitchers.

12. Aaron Harang – the Harangatang’s Numbers over the last 2 years are nearly identical. Year 3 of 16 W, 215 K’s, 3.5oish ERA, and 1.20ish WHIP coming right up! If he was on a better team he’d be ranked higher.

13. Carlos Zambrano – Was a big disappointment to many owners last year, but he overcame a very bad start to post respectable numbers. You’ll be able to get him much later this year than in years past, so he could be an excellent value pick if he returns to his 2003-2006 form.

14. Chris Young – Another pitcher who has shown steady improvement the last 3 years. At 6’10″, he’s an injury risk, but if he can stay healthy, he could be the breakout pitcher of 2008.

15. Felix Hernandez – After coming out the gate in 2007 guns ablazing, King Felix got hurt and then went on to put up one of the more inconsistent season’s for a pitcher in recent history. At the end, his numbers were decent (3.94 ERA, 14 W, 165 K’s) but it was a roller-coaster ride getting there. People have been waiting for this 21 year old (22 in April) to break out for 3 years now. The wait will be over in 2008. This is the year he puts it all together.

16. John Smoltz – Since returning to the rotation in 2005, people have questioned whether this is the year the 40-year-old, future Hall of Famer will start to decline. It hasn’t happened yet, his three year hiatus in the bullpen seemed to preserve his arm, and I wouldn’t bet on the ride ending in 2008. He’s old, but still very solid.

17. Roy Oswalt – Still a solid pitcher, but his K’s have declined the last 4 years (206>184>166>154). That could be attributed to him becoming a better pitcher in “real baseball”, but in fantasy, it’s all about the numbers. His reputation supersedes his production, but he’s also good enough that he can bounce back. He’ll probably go higher than he should.

18. Matt Cain – It must have been real frustrating to be in his shoes last year, going 6-17, while posting good numbers everywhere else. Expect improvement from the 23 year old stud across the board. He’s an exceptional talent and should have better luck in 2008.

19. Daisuke Matsuzaka – The ERA and WHIP were atrocious, but he still struck out over 200 in his first season in the majors, while winning 15 games. He pitched real well in the post season, and I expect him to make the necessary adjustments needed to give up fewer base runners and runs.