Mock #2 Recap

So I think I am on to something here. Rather than post all my rankings, which are so subjective anyway and can also be found on dozens of other sites, I think most of my future entries will be these draft recaps. 

Here’s the mock I took part in last night on MDC.  Click Here

I think Mock Draft’s are a very effective draft prep tool.  In no way can they help you figure out who is going to take exactly which players, in which spot, in your REAL drafts, but if you do enough you see very clear trends develop that can help you understand where certain player will be going, and at what point YOU think you should consider drafting a particular player.

For example, in the first draft I selected Liriano in the 13th round.  Prior to last night’s draft, someone who had read that post told me he thought I could have waited on him.  In the 11th round of last night’s draft, when Liriano was the top rated pitcher on my current rankings remaining, I decided to wait another round and select Street to be my #2 RP.  Gamble paid off and I was able to land him the the 14th.  Maybe next time I’ll wait till the 15th? 

One thing is for sure though, I’d take him way before Rich Hill or Ted Lilly, two pitchers selected before Liriano.  Those guys are nice pitchers, don’t get me wrong, but neither has the massive upside potential like Liriano does.  He’s coming off major injury, but he’s had a lot of time to recover, and he’s not injury PRONE like Mark Prior (at least not yet:), so no reason for me to think he can’t bounce back from this.  Sure there is risk involved, but this guy was arguably the best pitcher in fantasy baseball for a sufficient amount of time, not too long ago.

Here are some other things that stood out to me:

• I found myself taking Cano even higher than last draft, in the 4th round, but I still don’t think that was too high. All the other big 2B’s were gone (Utley, Upton, Phillips, and even Roberts) and if you look at the other offensive players remaining, I thought Cano was the most valuable. 
• Albeit the last pick of the round, I though Pence in the 5th was way too high. Don’t get me wrong, I think he’s a nice player, but I don’t think he should be going that far before (if before at all than)…
• …Delmon Young, who I was able to get in the 10th round!!! Lost in last year’s shuffle among other rookie breakouts (such as Braun, Tulowitzki, Chris B Young, Pence, etc.) Da Meat Hook’s kid bro put together a very solid freshman campaign, going .288/13/93/65/10. Let’s not forget this kid is only 22, and at a time was the #1 prospect in all of baseball. Moving to Minnesota, he’ll most likely get a shot to bat somewhere near the M&M boys (Mauer and Morneau) and he just may take the leap in 2008. I think it’s reasonable to expect a similar batting average and across the board improvement on the counting stats. Think .285/20/100/90/20.
• I already had an SS on my roster in Rollins, but when Furcal was there in the 9th I had to pounce. He suffered a tough injury right before the season last year, played through it, and his numbers suffered. BUT, in September, he bounced back nicely, going *** and 12 for 12 in SB attempts. I expect him to bounce back to his normal .280/8/60/100/40 levels.

Other picks I liked:

• Bay in the 7th. As I mentioned in my top 50, I think this guy is gonna go late like this in a lot of drafts and deliver top 20 numbers when all is said and done.
• Felix in the 10th. Right about where I’d take him. I didn’t here though, as I opted for Delmon.
• Brett Myers in the 11th. I was hoping he’d get back to me in the 12, but I wasn’t fortunate. I like him a lot.
• Shane Victorino in the 12th. After Myers went, I saw this name on the board and was shocked. Carl Crawford Lite should deliver .285/10/60/110/40 numbers hitting at the top of a very powerful Phillies lineup.

Early Top 20

The sign of a true addict…

It’s midnight on a Saturday night, and I’m sitting here thinking to myself who are the Top 20 players in all of fantasy baseball for the 2008 season.  Well, here’s what I think……..for now:

1. A-Rod:  At this time last year, for the first time in about 4/5 years, no one was even thinking about him at #1, coming off a “bad year” of the .290/35/121/113/15 variety.  To me, that’s exactly why he should have remained in that discussion.  If that’s a bad year, imagine what a good year means.  Well, in case you didn’t know, A-Rod showed it, going off to the tune of .314/54/156/143/24.  This year no one is thinking about not making him #1.  5 category goodness!
2. Phat Albert Pujols: Now I know.  The sexy thing to do is rank one of the speedy shortstops first, but I’m going with last year’s undisputed #1 here.  Just as A-Rod did in ‘06, Pujols had a “bad year” finishing with a pedestrian .327/32/103/99/2.  Just as A-Rod in ‘07, I expect a return of the real Phat Albert.  Think something along the lines of his insane career avg.’s of .332/42/128/126/6.  The only reason he is below A-Rod is because he is in a far inferior lineup.
3. Hanley Ramirez: OK, now I’m sexy.  A lot of folks, myself included, thought we’d see a bit of regression in 2007 after HaRam’s .292/17/59/119/51, rookie of the year 2006.  Well, he raised his numbers precipitously across the board (except steals) to .332/29/81/125/51.  He just turned 24.  I don’t know if the numbers can get any better than that, but I don’t know that I’d bet against it. 
4.  Jimmy Rollins: I didn’t think he should have been NL MVP, but you can’t really argue when a little shortstop hits .296/ 30/94/139/41.  Mid-prime switch hitter + great lineup + great ballpark = another stellar season for J-Roll. 
5. Jose Reyes:202.  That’s how many bases Jose Reyes has stolen the last 3 years.  You have him on your team, you are guaranteed top 3 in steals.  It’s as simple as that.  No player in fantasy baseball dominates a single category more.  He took an expected power dip last season (come on, you really thought he’d hit 20 homers?) , but that’s the only reason he’s below HanRam and Rollins.
6.  Matt Holiday:  Remember how everyone used to call the next big thing in college basketball Baby-Jordan (see Harold Minor, JR Rider)?  Well, after a second monster year in a row I think I’m gonna start calling Holliday Baby Pujols.  In that crazy park, I fully expect another crazy year for my #1 OF.
7. Chase Utley:  The 2B finished last year at .332/22/103/104/9.   Oh, he missed 30 games.  Flat out STUPID numbers at the thinnest position in the sport.  Think .320/30/120/120/17.  Definitely worth this high ranking.
8. David Wright:  I may move him up over Utley as the season nears, because his numbers from ‘06 were certainly better, but I do not expect another 34 steals (think 20-25) and the position is a little deeper. 
9. Miguel Cabrera:  I was concerned with his physique last year, but initial reports are that he’s lost some baby fat this off-season, and the dude still puts up numbers in a crappy lineup every year.  Now in the middle of arguably the best lineup in baseball, I’m scared to see what he can do.  He  may be top 3 next year.
10.  Johan Santana: If he goes to the Yanks or Red Sox, he’s 20 wins guaranteed.   We already know the other numbers.   Peavy narrowed the gap a little, but he’s still the best pitcher in FBB, and the only one I put in the top 20.
11. Ryan Howard:  If he didn’t miss 18 games, he would have had back to back 50 homer years.  I don’t like that he only hit .268.  But you know what, if you do that and still hit 50/140, you are still damn good.
12. Prince Fielder: I said to my boy Ari last preseason that I think Fielder may explode like Ryan Howard did the year before.  I was right.  That’s why I put him right behind Howard this year.  I don’t know if I expect 50 dingers (think 40-45), but everything else should be on par.
13. David Ortiz: Only reasons he’s below these two are that he’s DH only and a little older. 
14. Vlad Guerrero: Only reason he’s below Ortiz is because he doesn’t run anymore.  He’s breaking down a little physically, but he’s still a beast!
15. Grady Sizemore:  If they move him out of the leadoff spot, he’ll drive in 100 runs.  As great as he is in fantasy, he’s even better in “real baseball.”   He’s come close the last 2, but he will go 30-30 this year.
16. Carl Crawford:  The last few years people (again, myself included) have rated him higher because they thought a power spike was coming, and he’d be 20 HR guy.  He actually dipped down to 11 homers in 07.  Let’s just all accept him for what he is, a great fantasy OF with top shelf speed, and call it at that.  Crazy Carl’s numbers have been pretty stable the last 3 years, so expect something like .310/15/80/100/50.  No shame in that.
17. Travis Hafner:  Probably the biggest bust in FBB 2007, Pronk’s gonna be back with a vengeance.  NOTE:  If you are in a league where 10 games at a position get you eligibility for the next season (Yahoo), Pronk had 11 games at 1B last year.  That moves him up to 15 on this list.
18. Carlos Beltran:  Every year, a few guys say they are gonna run more, only to let us down.  Beltran walked the walk last year, going from 18 to 23 steals, while missing 18 games.  He’s not gonna hit for a good average, but it will be decent (275ish) and everything else is gonna be excellent. 
19. Alfonso Soriano: He’s a tough guy to crack.  One year he’s top 5.  The next year he slips to the 2nd round, the next year he’s back in the top 5.  Now he’s back in the 2nd round.  I don’t know about top 5 next year, but he will rise.  He actually hit .299 last year and I love those 30-30 guys!
20. Ryan Braun:  I know, it was only one year.  But you know what, he was second only to A-Rod in terms of per-game production last year.  I think he’ll regress a little in the batting average (think 290) but he could still approach and even improve on his counting number totals of 34/97/91/15. 

Just missed:  Brandon Phillips, Mark Teixeira, Ichiro, Magglio Ordonez, Justin Morneau, Robinson Cano.