I recently acquired Robinson Cano for next to nothing (his owner wasn’t keeping him anyway).

Being that I already have 2 other OF among my 5 keepers (CBY and Markakis), I am thinking about keeping Cano over Ichiro.  Obviously I lose a lot in the SB dept., but Cano should hit for a very good avg., hit more homers and drive in more runs than Ichiro, and will give me better roster flexibility going into the draft.

I’d love to hear what my loyal readers think.

So I did another mock and the results can be found here.  NOTE:  I was a bad addict and had to run away from the computer around the 15th round, after already letting the computer auto pick for me once in the 13th.  The wife was getting annoyed.

Some notes & observations:

• I waited for Liriano till the 15th, despite the fact that I had him as the best pitcher for 2 rounds.  I didn’t get him like I had the previous 2 drafts (in the 13th and 14th rounds respectively).
• Guys I thought went way too late:  Morneau (5), Atkins (7), Konerko (9, after Todd Helton.  Aweful!), Sheffield (9).
•  A guy I like a lot this year: Jeff Francoeur (who I took in the 10th round).   The 24 year old has knocked in over 100 runs the last 2 years, and he raised his average 32 points last year (.260-.292).  He dipped a little in the home run department in 2007, but he should be a good bet for a .280-25-100-85-5 season with big time upside.  He could take a big leap in 08.

Updated Top 50 Hitters

Keeper Trade

If you happened to read about this potential trade, you may glad to learn that a deal was made.  Tulowitzki was pulled off the table, as that team decided to keep him (he made the right move) and traded us Markakis for Bedard.  Trading Bedard wasn’t too difficult, as we still can keep Haren (if we kept Bedard, Haren would have gone back to the draft) and upgrading from Wang as our D keeper to Markakis was a no-brainer.   He’s a much more valuable player, with considerably more upside.

A concern of our was that of our 5 keepers, 3 are OF (Ichiro, Nick, and CBY) and that we lose a little flexibility going into the draft.  We have the #10 and 11 picks, and I am 97.2% certain Santana is going #1.  Therefore we should be able to land 2 of the following guys:  Sizemore, Beltran, Vlad. Teixeira, Soriano, Morneau, Berkman, Cano, Abreu, Jeter, Brian Roberts, Travis Hafner.   I think if we could land 2 infielders with our first 2 picks, we are in real good shape.  It’s very tough to tell how the draft is going to shake out, but if we could land like Morneau or Berkman and Cano with those 2 picks we’ll have a sick, and positionally balanced, offensive core.

Here’s the mock I took part in last night on MDC.  Click Here

I think Mock Draft’s are a very effective draft prep tool.  In no way can they help you figure out who is going to take exactly which players, in which spot, in your REAL drafts, but if you do enough you see very clear trends develop that can help you understand where certain player will be going, and at what point YOU think you should consider drafting a particular player.

For example, in the first draft I selected Liriano in the 13th round.  Prior to last night’s draft, someone who had read that post told me he thought I could have waited on him.  In the 11th round of last night’s draft, when Liriano was the top rated pitcher on my current rankings remaining, I decided to wait another round and select Street to be my #2 RP.  Gamble paid off and I was able to land him the the 14th.  Maybe next time I’ll wait till the 15th? 

One thing is for sure though, I’d take him way before Rich Hill or Ted Lilly, two pitchers selected before Liriano.  Those guys are nice pitchers, don’t get me wrong, but neither has the massive upside potential like Liriano does.  He’s coming off major injury, but he’s had a lot of time to recover, and he’s not injury PRONE like Mark Prior (at least not yet:), so no reason for me to think he can’t bounce back from this.  Sure there is risk involved, but this guy was arguably the best pitcher in fantasy baseball for a sufficient amount of time, not too long ago.

Here are some other things that stood out to me:

• I found myself taking Cano even higher than last draft, in the 4th round, but I still don’t think that was too high. All the other big 2B’s were gone (Utley, Upton, Phillips, and even Roberts) and if you look at the other offensive players remaining, I thought Cano was the most valuable. 
• Albeit the last pick of the round, I though Pence in the 5th was way too high. Don’t get me wrong, I think he’s a nice player, but I don’t think he should be going that far before (if before at all than)…
• …Delmon Young, who I was able to get in the 10th round!!! Lost in last year’s shuffle among other rookie breakouts (such as Braun, Tulowitzki, Chris B Young, Pence, etc.) Da Meat Hook’s kid bro put together a very solid freshman campaign, going .288/13/93/65/10. Let’s not forget this kid is only 22, and at a time was the #1 prospect in all of baseball. Moving to Minnesota, he’ll most likely get a shot to bat somewhere near the M&M boys (Mauer and Morneau) and he just may take the leap in 2008. I think it’s reasonable to expect a similar batting average and across the board improvement on the counting stats. Think .285/20/100/90/20.
• I already had an SS on my roster in Rollins, but when Furcal was there in the 9th I had to pounce. He suffered a tough injury right before the season last year, played through it, and his numbers suffered. BUT, in September, he bounced back nicely, going *** and 12 for 12 in SB attempts. I expect him to bounce back to his normal .280/8/60/100/40 levels.

Other picks I liked:

• Bay in the 7th. As I mentioned in my top 50, I think this guy is gonna go late like this in a lot of drafts and deliver top 20 numbers when all is said and done.
• Felix in the 10th. Right about where I’d take him. I didn’t here though, as I opted for Delmon.
• Brett Myers in the 11th. I was hoping he’d get back to me in the 12, but I wasn’t fortunate. I like him a lot.
• Shane Victorino in the 12th. After Myers went, I saw this name on the board and was shocked. Carl Crawford Lite should deliver .285/10/60/110/40 numbers hitting at the top of a very powerful Phillies lineup.

 Anyway, I was bored the other night, and I had a couple hours free, so I went to Mock Draft Central.

 The results of the draft can be found here .

Some notes:

1. I was fairly happy with my squad.   As always, I focused on offense early, taking Holliday, Ortiz, Morneau, Hafner, Cano, Bay, and Figgins with my first 7 picks, before shifiting my attention to pitching, and I was able to put together a very solid rotation (Haren, Smoltz, Cain, Liriano, Schilling, Snell, Pettitte, Blanton) 
2. Getting Wagner in the 9 and Mariano in 11 round I thought were great value picks.  They are not in the top 4 closers(Putz, Papelbon, KRod, Nathan) but both are on very good teams who should win a lot a games, and thus get plenty of save opps)
3. Normally, I’m not a big Figgins guy, but I basically ignored speed in the early rounds, so I needed to get a specialist.  Getting him the 7th was a great value.  Let’s also not forget he did hit .330 last year.
4. Someone else got Byrnes in the 7th, right before I took Figgins.  I think that was the steal of this draft.  He should go before Chris B Young (which was not the case here)
5. I’m not as high on him as some others (due to his ballpark, lineup, inconsistency) but Adrian Gonzalez at the end of the 9th round was a nice pick too.
6. I got some flak for taking Liriano in the 13th, but I am fine with gambling on my #4 SP with #1 upside there.
7. Someone took Russell Martin before V-Mart.  I don’t like that.  I know Martin runs, but it’s not like he is Vince Coleman.  V-Mart is better.
8. I was surprised to see Peavy go before Johan, but in speaking with others in the draft room, there were a lot of people who agreed.   That’s fine.  They are all wrong though.

Tier D – The Almost Aces (The guys who would make an OK #2 or a Very Good #3 on your staff)

20. Fausto Carmona- One of the biggest surprises of 2007. Downside is that he doesn’t strike a lot of guys out (although many seem to think that will come, but you should limit your expectations to no more than 150) and it’s going to be very difficult to win 19 games again.

21. Roy Halladay- Now this may come as a shock to some of you, but Roy Halladay is good, but no different really than Carmona at this point in his career. He is a much better pitcher in “real baseball” than he is in fantasy. He has not struck out 200 batters since 2003 (which can somewhat be attributed to injury). The last 2 seasons, in which he has pitched at least 220 innings, he has 132 and 139 K’s respectively. His ERA and WHIP got worse. He’ll win about 16 games, but you can’t really expect anything more than a 3.50 ERA, a 1.200 WHIP, and 135 K’s.

22. Brett Myers- I was very high on him last year, and was upset I was not able to draft him in any league. Then he became a closer, and adjusted so well to the role that he was disappointed to go back to the rotation when the Phillies acquired Lidge. What can’t be disputed is that Myers is an excellent pitcher. What we don’t know is he’ll respond to being a starter again. I think he’ll be real good, but as the great Mike Siano and Cory Schwartz of MLB Radio’s Fantasy 411 say “Strength Loves Certainty, Weakness Loves Risk.” Can’t yet be counted on to carry your rotation. There’s also always the chance Lidge either sucks or gets hurt, and Myers goes back to closing.

23. Francisco Liriano- An extreme injury risk after missing all of 2007, BUT, you must remember what he did in 2006. In case you forgot, in 16 starts, he went 11-3, with a 1.190 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 112 K’s in 98.2 innings. If he can regain his form, he’ll be a steal for whoever gets him after the 6^th round.

24. Tim Lincecum- FBB’s top rookie hurler from 2007. On a bad team, but in a good park, expect some inconsistency, but his ability to get the strikeout makes him a high-reward player.

25. Kelvim Escobar- A preseason sleeper favorite for years, Escobar FINALLY delivered the goods in 2007, winnings 18 games, striking out 160, with a 3.404 ERA and a 1.268 WHIP. He did battle some minor injuries, and has not cracked the 200 inning barrier since 2004, but he should be a solid middle-of-the-fantasy-rotation-starter in 2008.

26. James Shields- Another 2007 deep sleeper pick and eventual breakout. Just a flash in the pan, or can he do it again? (I’m a poet and I didn’t even know it) On a pretty crappy team, so may not win more than a dozen games, but he’ll have a solid ERA and WHIP and post excellent strikeout numbers, per his minor and major league ratio of about 7.7 K’s per 9 innings.

27. Ian Snell- On a terrible team, so he probably won’t win more the 12 games either, but should give decent ERA and WHIP to go with excellent strikeout numbers. Pretty similar to Shields (age, situation, stats). I take Shields because I like his team a little better.

28. Javier Vazquez- This is probably a case of me holding a grudge to an extent, but let me explain. In 2004, coming to the Yankees off a season where he struck out 241 batters, I thought he was gonna be amazing. To put it plainly, he sucked. He then went to Chicago, and while posting very good strikeout totals, he had dreadful ERA and WHIP for two years. Last year, he struck out 214 guys, while posting a 3.739 ERA and excellent 1.140 WHIP. He was amazing last year, but I despise him. I think we’ll probably see the 2005-2006 version in 2008.

29. Rich Hill- He was good in 2007. Very inconsistent, but overall good. People think he’s younger than he is. He’ll actually be 28 on Opening Day, so I don’t think there is too much upside here.

30. Curt Schilling- Much like Halladay, he’s a much better “real baseball” pitcher than he is a “fantasy baseball” pitcher. He’s getting older (41) he cannot be counted on to stay healthy, and unlike Roger Clemens, he doesn’t take steroids. He’s still good, but no stud.

31. Jeremy Bonderman- Coming off 4 years in a row, where Bonderman showed improvement in just about every statistical category we FBB Addict’s care about, a lot of people, myself included, thought this guy was gonna explode in 2007. He responded with the worst season since his rookie campaign of 2003. What’s amazing is that even with 5 season’s under his belt, Bonderman is still only 25 years old. A prime candidate for a really nice bounce back, but it’s hard to forget what he did last year.

32. Andy Pettitte- He’s not going to put up amazing numbers by any means, but he’s a very solid and consistent option. Should be a good source of wins, ERA, WHIP, and not hurt you too much in K’s (think 150).

33. Jeff Francis- When was the last time you saw a Colorado Rockie starting pitcher in the top 35? When was the last time Colorado had a pitcher as good as Jeff Francis? Because of his home park, it’s gonna be difficult for him to put up anything but an OK ERA and WHIP, but he should post nice win and strikeout numbers.

34. Joba Chamberlain- Obviously if he ends up in the bullpen, he’s not ranked this high, but he showed us all that he was something special last year. Until a swarm of midges kept him from shutting down the Indians in the ALDS, Joba was untouchable, perhaps the most dominant pitcher in the league the last two months of the season. The Yanks are gonna be very careful with their prized phenom, and he’s young, so expect some inconsistency, but he has the potential to become of the most dominant pitchers in the game, perhaps as early as this year.

35. Chien Ming Wang- I’ve spoken about it already in this space, but it warrants saying again that he’s very limited as a fantasy starter, because he doesn’t strike anyone out. Nevertheless, he pitches deep into games, will win close to 20 (19 the last 2 seasons) and provide good ERA and WHIP.

36. Adam Wainwright- One of my big sleepers last year, Wainwright overcame a terrible April and May, and quietly delivered the goods, posting a 2.71 ERA and a 7 K/9 after the All-Star break. I think he’s primed for a big breakout this year. Could win 16 and strike out 170.

37. Brad Penny- He’s been relatively healthy the last couple of year and has developed into a nice pitcher in LA. Should win around 15 games and strike out 145 with a mid-3′s ERA, but a terrible WHIP (1.3ish)

38. Tim Hudson- After a dreadful 2006, Hudson turned back the clock to his Oakland heyday in 2007, and was a very good pitcher again. Much like others in this tier, he relies a lot on the defense behind him and does not get a lot of K’s, but he should win a nice amount of games while providing a mid 3′s ERA and 1.2ish WHIP.

Tier E- The Rotation Fillers (some injury risks, a few sleepers, some underrated, and some overrated.  None of these guys should be one of your top 2, and are best suited as 4′s and 5′s.)

39. Rich Harden – If he wasn’t always hurt, he’d be top 10, but he’s always hurt. The very definition of the High Risk- High Reward player.

40. Ben Sheets – ditto

41. Yovani Gallardo- Another top rookie hurler from 2007, expect inconsistency, but the talent is legit. He can get the strikeout, and I dig the strikeout.

42. John Maine- I like his demeanor on the mound. I’ve seen him dominate and get lit up. Always the same look. He may surprise a lot of people this year.

43. Joe Blanton- Third Year starter. 27 years old. Significant improvement across the board in 2007. All signs point to a breakout in 2008.

44. AJ Burnett- See Harden, Rich and Sheets, Ben.

45. Jered Weaver- After he exploded on the scene in 2006, he had a solid, yet injury affected 2007. His funky mechanics make him an injury risk moving forward as well, but we should see improvement in 2008.

46. Dustin McGowan- Had an excellent 2^nd half in 2007. Could be on the cusp of a breakthrough in 2008.

47. Ted Lilly- Had an excellent year in 2007, clearly benefiting from the move to the NL. Still, I’m not betting on the 31 year old to replicate his career year in 2008. He’ll probably regress across the board, but he’s still a nice end of rotation type.

48. Phil Hughes- Right now, I rank him as if he is still a Yankee, but if he’s traded for Santana, he drops down a little due to the downgrade in team (translation-wins).

49. Dontrelle Willis- Another case of a pitcher who is much better in “real baseball” than in fantasy. He’s coming off 2 really bad years in a row and moving to the AL. I think he’s gonna get lit up. Someone will overpay for him, but don’t let it be you.

50. Randy Johnson- When he was healthy, he was actually quite effective in 2007. Problem is, he was rarely healthy. At 44, and coming off 2 back-surgeries in the span of a year, he cannot be counted on.

51. Chris Carpenter- He’s probably not going to be ready till August, but he was the best pitcher in the NL before getting hurt on Opening Day last year. He’ll have a lot of time to heal, and if you have the patience to see him sit on your DL all year, he could be factor down the stretch.

52. Bronson Arroyo- I was really high on him in 2007, and he started off great, hit a big rough patch in the middle of the year, and then finished really strong. His bullpen also hurt him a lot. Assuming they give him a little more support in 2008, he could return to his 2006 form.

53. Mark Buerhle – Rebounded nicely in 2007, but that was a contract year. Doesn’t get the K’s but a nice option for the end of your rotation.

Tier F- The Matchup Guys (Unless they explode, should only be used in favorable matchups.  Shouldn’t be fixures, regardless of opponent.  Also, they are getting shorter blurbs J)

54. John Garland- Chien Ming Wang-lite

55. Ervin Santana- Terribly inconsistent, but loads of talent.

56. Randy Wolf- Injury Risk, but favorable situation in San Diego.

57. Chris Capuano- Never really built of his 2005 breakout.

58. Pedro Martinez- Intriguing, but I think he’s done.

59. Jeremy Gurthrie- One of my big sleepers for 2008.

60. Barry Zito- Note: It is no longer 2002

61. Gil Meche- He’s better than his rank as far as talent goes, but he’s on KC, which is never a good thing.

62. Noah Lowry- Consistently mediocre.

63. Chad Billingsley- Inconsistent, but tremendous upside

64. Daniel Cabrera- They very definition of inconsistency. He’ll frustrate you to no end.

Tier G- The Rest

65. Boof Bonser

66. Tom Gorzellany

67. Mike Mussina

68. Orlando Hernandez

69. Kenny Rogers

70. Clay Buchholz

71. Adam Miller

72. Dave Bush

73. Homer Bailey

74. Mark Prior

75. Shawn Marcum

76. Ubaldo Jimenez

77. John Lester

78. Scott Baker

79. Oliver Perez

80. Derek Lowe

81. Andrew Miller

82. Greg Maddux

83. Jason Schmidt

84. Zack Grienke

85. Taylor Buchholz

86. Bartolo Colon

87. Matt Garza

88. Scott Olsen

89. Freddy Garcia

90. Cliff Lee

91. John Patterson

92. Jose Contreras

93. Livan Hernandez

94. Jeremy Sowers

95. Zach Duke

96. Nate Robertson

97. Josh Johnson

98. Jason Jennings

99. Anibal Sanchez

100. Anthony Reyes

101. Tom Glavine

102. Chuck James

103. Mike Pelfrey

104. Doug Davis

105. Brandon McCarthy

106. Jeff Suppan

107. Kevin Millwood

108. Jorge Sosa

109. Mark Mulder

110. Carlos Silva

111. Horacio Ramirez

112. Esteban Loaiza

113. Paul Byrd

114. Jon Leiber

115. Matt Morris

116. Gustavo Chacin

117. Jake Westbrook

118. Tim Wakefield

119. Adam Eaton

120. Odalis Perez

121. Jason Marquis

122. David Wells

123. Jeff Weaver

‘The Sheet’ is the spreadsheet that I create every year.  When you see it, it will blow your mind.  ‘The Sheet’ wins people leagues. 

So on to the Starting Pitchers!

If you read the About the Addict page, you know some of my philosophy on pitching.  It’s not exactly reinventing the wheel here, but I generally say to draft pitching late, the reasons being that pitching is much more inconsistent than offense on a year to year basis, and better value can be found later in the draft and once the season begins.

Do not interperet this as me saying pitching is not as important as hitting.  On the contrary.  In most league formats, a good starting pitcher has a much greater impact on your overall numbers in those statistics as the good hitter does in theirs, and it can be argued that they are more important.  The issue with pitching is that we don’t know from year to year who those elite guys are going to be. 

For example, let’s look at ESPN’s projected top 10 pitchers for 2007, and look at how they actually fared on ESPN’s end of season player rater (among other starting pitchers)

• Johan Santana (3)
• Chris Carpenter (not rated, only started one game due to injury)
• Roy Halladay (23)
• Roy Oswalt (26)
• Jake Peavy (1)
• Carlos Zambrano (21)
• Brandon Webb (5) 
• Jeremy Bonderman (unrated, but in 28 starts his numbers were: 174.1 IP, 11 W, 145 K, 5.01 ERA, 1.382 WHIP)
• John Lackey (6)
• Ben Sheets (unrated, but in 24 starts his numbers were: 141.1 IP, 12 W, 106 K, 3.82 ERA, 1.238 WHIP)

Now I know it’s a small sample size, but you get the point.  Of ESPN’s Preseason Top 10, only 4 finished in the actual top ten.  6 finished 21st or lower.  If you draft one of the highly coveted starters, the odds are against them actually returning value.  I don’t want to bore you with further stats to back up the point, but it is like this every year.  Granted, there are busts as every position, every year, but there are more at SP than any other. 

Now here is a list of pitchers who were either drafted very late in drafts last year (if drafted at all), their respective positions on ESPN’s year end player rater in 2007, and 2007 stats.

• Javier Vazquez (11, 15W/213K/3.74/1.140)
• Fausto Carmona (12, 19W/137K/3.06/1.209)
• Kelvim Escobar (15, 18W/160K/3.40/1.268)
• Ted Lilly (16, 15W/174K/3.83/1.140)
• James Shields (17, 12W/184K/3.85/1.107)

I’m not even mentioning the mid-round guys (ie Haren, Bedard, Verlander, Lackey, Beckett, Sabathia) who all ended up in the top 10.  The point is that you don’t have to draft starting pitching early (or relievers, but that is another discussion altogether) to form a good staff.

So what is the astute fantasy baseball player to do?  Well, for one you have to know a lot of names going into the draft.  If you are in a 10 team league, you should at least know 80 or so, 100 in a 12, 130 in a 14, etc.).   When you are choosing between Noah Lowry or Dave Bush in the 20th round of the draft, you may be deciding between this year’s Fausto Carmona or ,er, Dave Bush, so you should have as much information possible on as many options as possible to make the most educated decision.

Tier A – The Elite (the guys I won’t get)

1.  Johan Santana -Had an “off” year in 2007 and still finished with 15 Wins, 235 K’s, 3.320 ERA, and a 1.073 WHIP.  Worst case scenario is he replicates.  I think he’ll be better.  I’ll take him around 10

2. Jake Peavy – As mentioned in my top 50 article, he’s getting close to Johan.  Ignore his ERA from 2006 and he has 3 great years in a row.  It’s tough to predict wins, but figure 15-19, 215 K’s, ERA under 3 and a WHIP close to 1.

Tier B – The Aces (the guys I’d love to have but probably won’t be able to draft because I’ll be taking all offense the first 5-6 rounds)

3. Brandon Webb – Had a nice bump in K’s in 2007, jumping up to 194, while posting solid ERA and WHIP for the 4^th year in a row. His overall numbers were actually better than his 2006 Cy Young campaign.

4. CC Sabathia – Some fear the portly lefty may start to break down physically, but he has very smooth mechanics. Has 7 full seasons under his rather large belt, and is only 27 years old. He entered his prime with a Cy Young in 2007, and will probably put up similar numbers in 2008 (Think 17/200/3.10/1.100)

5. Erik Bedard – Missed about a month and finished with 221 K’s, building off his huge 2^nd half in 2006. He’s shown statistical improvement in each of the last 4 years. I don’t know if he can get any better than 2007, because when healthy, he may have been the #1 pitcher in fantasy, but he should be a good bet for solid numbers. He is a bit of an injury risk, but really, all pitchers are to a degree.

6. Dan Haren – Many correctly predicted he’d be the breakout pitcher of 2007. Now the question is how does he follow that up? A move to a contender in the NL means I expect he improves his numbers across the board, and could be in the running for a Cy Young.

7. John Lackey – After consecutive seasons of remarkably similar numbers in 2005 and 2006, Lackey set career bests in ERA (3.01), WHIP (1.210), and Wins (19) in 2007. One thing to note is that his strikeout totals and rates have decreased the last 3 years (199/8.57>190/7.86>178/7.19).

8. Josh Beckett – The first 20 game winner in baseball since 2005, Beckett found a comfort level in his 2^nd season in Boston, and had the best full season of his career. He’s still pretty young (27) and it is actually possible he could improve in 2008. He’ll probably miss a few starts (he made 30 in 07) but still capable of anchoring your staff.

9. Justin Verlander – I’ll admit, I did not think J-Verl was gonna be that good in 2007. I thought coming off his rookie season where he almost doubled his (college and minor league) career maximum innings, he was due for a breakdown/sophomore slump. I was dead wrong. He improved his numbers across the board and could do so again in 2008.

10. Cole Hamels – A bit of an injury risk, but this guy has #1 overall potential. Significantly improved his walk rate, walking 5 fewer batters (43) in 2007, than he did in 50 fewer innings in 2006 (48). If he pitches 200 innings, he’s a very good bet for 200 K’s.

Tier C – The Other Aces (the Guys I’d be happy to have anchoring my staff and who should cost much less than the Tier B guys)

11. Scott Kazmir – he may go for as much as the aforementioned pitchers, and may post better K totals than all of them (led the AL with 238 last year) but his awful WHIP (1.379) knocks him down a tier for me. Kind of like the Adam Dunn of pitchers.

12. Aaron Harang – the Harangatang’s Numbers over the last 2 years are nearly identical. Year 3 of 16 W, 215 K’s, 3.5oish ERA, and 1.20ish WHIP coming right up! If he was on a better team he’d be ranked higher.

13. Carlos Zambrano – Was a big disappointment to many owners last year, but he overcame a very bad start to post respectable numbers. You’ll be able to get him much later this year than in years past, so he could be an excellent value pick if he returns to his 2003-2006 form.

14. Chris Young – Another pitcher who has shown steady improvement the last 3 years. At 6’10″, he’s an injury risk, but if he can stay healthy, he could be the breakout pitcher of 2008.

15. Felix Hernandez – After coming out the gate in 2007 guns ablazing, King Felix got hurt and then went on to put up one of the more inconsistent season’s for a pitcher in recent history. At the end, his numbers were decent (3.94 ERA, 14 W, 165 K’s) but it was a roller-coaster ride getting there. People have been waiting for this 21 year old (22 in April) to break out for 3 years now. The wait will be over in 2008. This is the year he puts it all together.

16. John Smoltz – Since returning to the rotation in 2005, people have questioned whether this is the year the 40-year-old, future Hall of Famer will start to decline. It hasn’t happened yet, his three year hiatus in the bullpen seemed to preserve his arm, and I wouldn’t bet on the ride ending in 2008. He’s old, but still very solid.

17. Roy Oswalt – Still a solid pitcher, but his K’s have declined the last 4 years (206>184>166>154). That could be attributed to him becoming a better pitcher in “real baseball”, but in fantasy, it’s all about the numbers. His reputation supersedes his production, but he’s also good enough that he can bounce back. He’ll probably go higher than he should.

18. Matt Cain – It must have been real frustrating to be in his shoes last year, going 6-17, while posting good numbers everywhere else. Expect improvement from the 23 year old stud across the board. He’s an exceptional talent and should have better luck in 2008.

19. Daisuke Matsuzaka – The ERA and WHIP were atrocious, but he still struck out over 200 in his first season in the majors, while winning 15 games. He pitched real well in the post season, and I expect him to make the necessary adjustments needed to give up fewer base runners and runs.

In speaking to another team in my league, I was offered either Nick Markakis or Troy Tulowitzki for Bedard.  This other team currently has Hamels as their C keeper, and views Bedard as an upgrade on him (not Haren though).  They are keeping Justin Verlander as their D and BJ Upton as their E, which makes these guys expendable.

My teammate Ari is away for the next few days, so I sent him this email explaining why I think we should make the deal.  I’d love to hear what others think.

******
Here’s why I think we should trade Bedard for Tulo:

We still have Haren who is at worst a tick lower than Bedard, and we can’t keep both.   You could actually make the case that Haren may be more valuable. Obviously Bedard had a nice edge in K’s last year, but at 29 on opening day, has never thrown more than 196 innings (2006) and has spent at least 1 month on the DL in every season but 1 (2006).  Haren, 27 on opening day, has thrown at least 217 innings the last three years and has never been on the DL.  Bedard MAY be the better pitcher, but Haren is DEFINITELY younger and healthier.  They are really fairly equal, so really this deal boils down to whether you’d rather have Tulo or Joba/ Wang.

In NO scratch draft for 2008 would I EVER select Joba or Wang over Tulo.  In a regular draft this year, Tulo is probably going in the 4th/5th round (Mock Draft Central current ADP is 45).  I would probably even select Tulo before I’d take Bedard or Haren this year.  Other than a sophomore slump, I think it is fair to assume he’ll replicate his 2007 stats (.291/24/99/104/7, I can’t believe we dropped him), maybe more likely than Bedard or Haren replicating their 2007 numbers. 

It’s MUCH more likely that Tulo replicates than Joba putting up huge numbers.  They are not gonna be careful not to overwork him and there is also a chance that he pitches out of the pen, in which case he is 100% worthless to us (or anyone else, in a trade).  Wang only gives 3 stats (only wins is excellent), so it impossible for him to put up huge numbers. If a starter and we didn’t make this trade I say, for sure, Joba over Wang (for now)

So you ask what about Tulo vs. Markakis, as both can be had for the same price?

I’d predict that Markakis should probably replicate his numbers from 2007 as well (.300/23/117/97/18), with upside.

Say they both replicate their 2007 numbers, I’d prefer Tulowitzki, due mainly to the position scarcity.

There are, at best, two other SS I’d rather have than Tulo going back into our draft.  Barring unpredictable significant injury prior to keeper declaration, Reyes, Rollins, and Hanley are all being kept.  Jeter is back in, Guillen maybe.  Who else is there?  Tejada?  Young? Peralta? Hardy? Furcal? Renteria? Lugo? Orlando Cabrera? I’ll take Tulo way before any of them.  I don’t think I’m forgetting anyone.  Bobby Crosby?

What about OF of Markakis’ caliber? (By “caliber,” of course, I refer to both the size of their gun barrels and the high quality of their characters… Two meanings… caliber… it’s a homonym… Forget it.)  We are pretty certain (again barring unpredictable major injuries or trades) that Holliday (Summers is keeping Pujols), Sizemore (Lazy Bags are keeping Wright), Beltran (us), Vlad (sleeper is keeping Utley) so that’s four I’d rather have than him right there.  I’m sure there also another 5-10 of similar value I’m not mentioning.

I almost think we should pull the trigger right away before they catch on and maybe decide to keep him over Verlander (to be henceforth referred to as J-Verl).  Same as with Bedard and Haren, I’d probably take Tulo in the 4th/5th round over J-Verl in a scratch draft.

Also, let’s not forget how building our team around offense worked out for us last year. Let’s just say we did the trade for Tulo, our offensive core would be incredible (projections in parentheses.  A-Rod (.300/45/120/120/20), Ichiro (.325/6/70/100/35, Tulo (.290/20/90/100/7), CBY (.260/25/70/80/25).   

*****

FYI – we won our league last year without drafting a SP till the 8th round.

 What do you think?

 21.     Brandon Phillips:  30-30 at 2B.  He probably should be higher than this, maybe ahead of Soriano, but this is only the first time we’ve seen him do this.  Probably not the last though. 

22.     Mark Teixeira: Started off a little slow once again in 07, but he bounced back pretty quickly.  Missed a few weeks and still finished with very good numbers, .300/30/104/86/0.  Assuming healthy and you can deal with a slow starter, he’s a lock at 35-100 with upside.  

23.     Ichiro: The only reason he is not higher is because unless he hits .350 (which I’m not saying is not likely), he’s a tick below Crawford.   LOCK at .315 AVG, 100 runs, and 40 SB’s.   

24.     Magglio Ordonez: I think a lot of “experts” may rank him higher than this, but he’s not going to hit .363 again and I expect the power numbers to drop as well.  He’s gonna be really good, think .300/25/110/90/4, but not 2007 good. 

25.     Justin Morneau:  I think this guy is gonna be a lot (numbers wise) like pre-2007 Carlos Delgado.  Every year he’ll get a very streaky .280/35/100 (great months, bad months, no in betweens), but he’s gonna have 2-3 years where he just goes off (ie 2006).   After a down year in 2007, are we in for a resurgence?  

26.     Robinson Cano: As a staunch supporter of the New York Yankees, I watch a lot of games.  I’ve seen a good majority of Robinson Cano’s MLB at bats.  This guy is INSANE!  When he’s on (not like the first half of 07, more like the 2^nd) he can hit any pitch to any part of the ballpark. Hit a ridiculous .343 after the All Star break, with 13 HR and 57 RBI.  If the Yankees wise up and move him to the #5 hole, between A-Rod and Posada, the blossoming 2B is gonna hit .320/25/110/100/5 and he’s gonna win a batting title one of these years. 

27.     Lance Berkman: The #1 multi-position eligible player in the game (1B, OF) had an off 2007, but still hit .278/34/102.  With the acquisition of Miguel Tejada and Kaz Matsui to infuse the lineup, Lance’s numbers should improve.   

28.     BJ Upton:  The #2 multi-position eligible player (2B, OF) is an electrifying talent that has #1 overall potential.  He may not have the patience yet to meet his 2007 batting average (.300), but he’s a good enough hitter to hit .285 with 30-30 potential.  Enjoy the 2B eligibility this year, but it is probably the last as he’s developed nicely as a CF. 

29.     Adam Dunn: Dunn owners were pleasantly surprised with a .264 average last year.  He’s hit exactly 40 home runs in each of the last 3 seasons, 46 the season before that.  He’s gonna kill your AVG, but he’s gonna give you excellent power numbers and is a very valuable player.  If he can hit .260 again, you’ll be fine. 

30.     Aramis Ramirez:  He missed about 30 games and still had excellent numbers.  Lock for .285/30/100/90. 

31.     Derek Jeter: It was a tough decision going with him over Carlos Guillen, but I think his downside is pretty close to Guillen’s upside.  At worst he’ll do what he did last year, .322/12/73/102/15, but he also has the potential to go .340/15/95/120/25. 

32.     Carlos Guillen:  Let’s call him 31(a). One of the most underrated players in fantasy baseball.  He’s gonna move to 1B this year and he’ll give you nice 5 category production.  Think .300/18/90/100/18.   

33.     Bobby Abreu:  Another Yankee lefty who endured a disastrous first half, but was en fuego after the break to give him nice overall numbers of the .283/16/101/123/25.  I think his numbers will be right there again this year, but you’ll be getting them more consistently.  A very nice player (I think Ari will disagree though). 

34.     Curtis Granderson:  To be honest, I did not realize how good a year he had last year until a couple weeks ago.  He probably deserves to be much higher on this list.  A very good shot to repeat his .300/23/74/122/26, 2007 numbers. 

35.     Carlos Lee:  One of these years he’s gonna be too fat to be good.  Problem is, each year he rakes.  I think the days of 20 steals are over, but he’s a lock at .285/30/110/90.  He’s just about done it the last 5 years.

36.     Brian Roberts:  The last of the good 2B’s.  Big drop-off after him.  Speed Demon.  Think .280/10/70/100/40. 

37.     Carlos Pena: 2007’s biggest surprise.  Won’t be that good again, but he’ll be close.  

38.     Garret Atkins:  There’s something about him I don’t like, but it’s definitely not his back to back campaigns of at least .300/25/110 or his home ballpark. 

39.     Victor Martinez:  Let me preface this with that I would never draft a catcher this high.  BUT, if I would, it would be him.  Projection: .300/18/90/80.  

40.     Troy Tulowitzki:  We cut him early last year.  Big mistake.  Imagine his numbers if he didn’t hit .244 in April?  In case you can’t, I think we’ll see them in 2008.  

41.     Jason Bay:  My pick for the 2008 Fantasy Superstar OF Who is Going to be Drafted Way Too Late and Win His Owners Leagues This Year Award.  Previous winners include Gary Sheffield (2007), Vernon Wells (2006).   

42.     Eric Byrnes:  Raise your hand if you predicted he’d go .286/21/83/103/50 in 2007? (Anyone? Anyone?) Raise your hand if you think he’ll do it again in 2008? (Anyone? Anyone?)  Raise your hand if you think he’ll come close (Ed. Note: I am raising my hand) 

43.     Nick Markakis:  A really nice young developing hitter.  Kind of reminds me a little of Paul O’Neill.  Should hit .310/25/100/100/15 for years to come. 

44.     Alex Rios: He teased us in 2006, but he really put out in 2007.  I don’t know how much upside he really has, but he should be able to duplicate his .297/24/85/114/17 statline. 

45.     Derek Lee: Had a decent year in 2007, coming back from a wrist injury.  The power stroke returned in the second half.  I think he should be safe for .300/30/100/90.  I think the days of 15 steals are gone though. 

46.     Russell Martin:  Had an incredible 2007, almost going 20-20 (finished at 19-21).  I don’t know if I’d bet on him doing it, but he should come close again.   

47.     Manny Ramirez:  Manny has regressed statistically in each of the last 2 years.  It can probably be attributed to poor health, and that is a legitimate concern for 2008.  However, if he can stay healthy, when he plays he rakes.   

48.     Paul Konerko:  We knew going into 2007 he wouldn’t hit .300 again, but we didn’t expect .259.  Nevertheless, he did finish with 31 homers and 90 RBI.  Again, if that’s a bad year, sign me up! 

49.     Gary Sheffield:  Got off to a terrible start but was just plain STUPID from May-July.  Then he got hurt and never really regained his stroke.  He should be healthy to start the year, so I expect a typical Gary Sheffield season.  Think .290/30/110/90/15.  Note that unless you are in a 10 game eligibility league, he’s a DH only.

50.     Jake Peavy:  Best pitcher in the game last year.  3 straight years of 200 K’s.  Give me one more year like last and you jump up to Santana land.

Just Missed: Miguel Tejada, Chipper Jones, Adrian Gonzalez

Top 50 Positional Breakdown:  2 SP, 2 C, 9 1B, 5 2B, 6 SS, 6 3B, 19 OF, 3 DH

It’s midnight on a Saturday night, and I’m sitting here thinking to myself who are the Top 20 players in all of fantasy baseball for the 2008 season.  Well, here’s what I think……..for now:

1. A-Rod:  At this time last year, for the first time in about 4/5 years, no one was even thinking about him at #1, coming off a “bad year” of the .290/35/121/113/15 variety.  To me, that’s exactly why he should have remained in that discussion.  If that’s a bad year, imagine what a good year means.  Well, in case you didn’t know, A-Rod showed it, going off to the tune of .314/54/156/143/24.  This year no one is thinking about not making him #1.  5 category goodness!
2. Phat Albert Pujols: Now I know.  The sexy thing to do is rank one of the speedy shortstops first, but I’m going with last year’s undisputed #1 here.  Just as A-Rod did in ’06, Pujols had a “bad year” finishing with a pedestrian .327/32/103/99/2.  Just as A-Rod in ’07, I expect a return of the real Phat Albert.  Think something along the lines of his insane career avg.’s of .332/42/128/126/6.  The only reason he is below A-Rod is because he is in a far inferior lineup.
3. Hanley Ramirez: OK, now I’m sexy.  A lot of folks, myself included, thought we’d see a bit of regression in 2007 after HaRam’s .292/17/59/119/51, rookie of the year 2006.  Well, he raised his numbers precipitously across the board (except steals) to .332/29/81/125/51.  He just turned 24.  I don’t know if the numbers can get any better than that, but I don’t know that I’d bet against it. 
4.  Jimmy Rollins: I didn’t think he should have been NL MVP, but you can’t really argue when a little shortstop hits .296/ 30/94/139/41.  Mid-prime switch hitter + great lineup + great ballpark = another stellar season for J-Roll. 
5. Jose Reyes:202.  That’s how many bases Jose Reyes has stolen the last 3 years.  You have him on your team, you are guaranteed top 3 in steals.  It’s as simple as that.  No player in fantasy baseball dominates a single category more.  He took an expected power dip last season (come on, you really thought he’d hit 20 homers?) , but that’s the only reason he’s below HanRam and Rollins.
6.  Matt Holiday:  Remember how everyone used to call the next big thing in college basketball Baby-Jordan (see Harold Minor, JR Rider)?  Well, after a second monster year in a row I think I’m gonna start calling Holliday Baby Pujols.  In that crazy park, I fully expect another crazy year for my #1 OF.
7. Chase Utley:  The 2B finished last year at .332/22/103/104/9.   Oh, he missed 30 games.  Flat out STUPID numbers at the thinnest position in the sport.  Think .320/30/120/120/17.  Definitely worth this high ranking.
8. David Wright:  I may move him up over Utley as the season nears, because his numbers from ’06 were certainly better, but I do not expect another 34 steals (think 20-25) and the position is a little deeper. 
9. Miguel Cabrera:  I was concerned with his physique last year, but initial reports are that he’s lost some baby fat this off-season, and the dude still puts up numbers in a crappy lineup every year.  Now in the middle of arguably the best lineup in baseball, I’m scared to see what he can do.  He  may be top 3 next year.
10.  Johan Santana: If he goes to the Yanks or Red Sox, he’s 20 wins guaranteed.   We already know the other numbers.   Peavy narrowed the gap a little, but he’s still the best pitcher in FBB, and the only one I put in the top 20.
11. Ryan Howard:  If he didn’t miss 18 games, he would have had back to back 50 homer years.  I don’t like that he only hit .268.  But you know what, if you do that and still hit 50/140, you are still damn good.
12. Prince Fielder: I said to my boy Ari last preseason that I think Fielder may explode like Ryan Howard did the year before.  I was right.  That’s why I put him right behind Howard this year.  I don’t know if I expect 50 dingers (think 40-45), but everything else should be on par.
13. David Ortiz: Only reasons he’s below these two are that he’s DH only and a little older. 
14. Vlad Guerrero: Only reason he’s below Ortiz is because he doesn’t run anymore.  He’s breaking down a little physically, but he’s still a beast!
15. Grady Sizemore:  If they move him out of the leadoff spot, he’ll drive in 100 runs.  As great as he is in fantasy, he’s even better in “real baseball.”   He’s come close the last 2, but he will go 30-30 this year.
16. Carl Crawford:  The last few years people (again, myself included) have rated him higher because they thought a power spike was coming, and he’d be 20 HR guy.  He actually dipped down to 11 homers in 07.  Let’s just all accept him for what he is, a great fantasy OF with top shelf speed, and call it at that.  Crazy Carl’s numbers have been pretty stable the last 3 years, so expect something like .310/15/80/100/50.  No shame in that.
17. Travis Hafner:  Probably the biggest bust in FBB 2007, Pronk’s gonna be back with a vengeance.  NOTE:  If you are in a league where 10 games at a position get you eligibility for the next season (Yahoo), Pronk had 11 games at 1B last year.  That moves him up to 15 on this list.
18. Carlos Beltran:  Every year, a few guys say they are gonna run more, only to let us down.  Beltran walked the walk last year, going from 18 to 23 steals, while missing 18 games.  He’s not gonna hit for a good average, but it will be decent (275ish) and everything else is gonna be excellent. 
19. Alfonso Soriano: He’s a tough guy to crack.  One year he’s top 5.  The next year he slips to the 2nd round, the next year he’s back in the top 5.  Now he’s back in the 2nd round.  I don’t know about top 5 next year, but he will rise.  He actually hit .299 last year and I love those 30-30 guys!
20. Ryan Braun:  I know, it was only one year.  But you know what, he was second only to A-Rod in terms of per-game production last year.  I think he’ll regress a little in the batting average (think 290) but he could still approach and even improve on his counting number totals of 34/97/91/15. 

Just missed:  Brandon Phillips, Mark Teixeira, Ichiro, Magglio Ordonez, Justin Morneau, Robinson Cano.

• A Tier (round 1-3 from 2007 draft) – A-Rod.  The obvious choice.  

• B Tier (4-7) Ichiro.  He wins out over Konerko, Michael Young, Sheffield, Joe Nathan.

• C Tier (8-12).  Here’s where it starts getting a little tougher.  I have to choose between two of last year’s breakout SP’s, Dan Haren and Erik Bedard.  Untill he got hurt towards the end of last season, I would have said Bedard for sure, due to the high K potential, but the injury risk does concern me a little bit.  With Haren’s trade to the NL, his value certainly rises, but then again, Bedard may be joining him in quadruple A.  As of now, I’m still leaning toward Bedard, but that may change.  I think there is a chance last year was as good as it gets from Bedard, which is amazing, but I think Haren still may be rising.  He could take another big step this year.
• D Tier (13-18).  The options are two NY Yankee hurlers, Chien Ming Wang and phenom Joba Chamberlain (eligible as an E).  Now this decision becomes real easy if Joba stays in the bullpen.  If he ain’t getting saves, I ain’t wasting a keeper on him this year.  But if he does join the rotation as expected, then you have a tough call.  Wang is valuable because of his ability to get wins and post a respectible ERA and WHIP.  Being that they play on the same team, I think they should win about the same ammount of games.  Throw in that Joba has 200 K potential, and I think you may have to give the edge to the kid.

• E Tier (19-25 plus undrafteds).  Chris B. Young.  A 30-30 guy is hard to come by.  His terrible average from 2007 should go up, in turn raising his other counting stats (HR, RBI, R, SB’s) as he should be on base more.  I expect big things.

So basically, my two big decisions are what to do with my C and D keepers.  I’d love to hear what everyone thinks/