21-50

Due to the tremendous amount of positive feedback I received on my initial Top 20 rankings, I have decided to include my current #21 – 50 rankings.  In the coming weeks I’ll be doing positional ranks. 

 21.     Brandon Phillips:  30-30 at 2B.  He probably should be higher than this, maybe ahead of Soriano, but this is only the first time we’ve seen him do this.  Probably not the last though. 

22.     Mark Teixeira: Started off a little slow once again in 07, but he bounced back pretty quickly.  Missed a few weeks and still finished with very good numbers, .300/30/104/86/0.  Assuming healthy and you can deal with a slow starter, he’s a lock at 35-100 with upside.  

23.     Ichiro: The only reason he is not higher is because unless he hits .350 (which I’m not saying is not likely), he’s a tick below Crawford.   LOCK at .315 AVG, 100 runs, and 40 SB’s.   

24.     Magglio Ordonez: I think a lot of “experts” may rank him higher than this, but he’s not going to hit .363 again and I expect the power numbers to drop as well.  He’s gonna be really good, think .300/25/110/90/4, but not 2007 good. 

25.     Justin Morneau:  I think this guy is gonna be a lot (numbers wise) like pre-2007 Carlos Delgado.  Every year he’ll get a very streaky .280/35/100 (great months, bad months, no in betweens), but he’s gonna have 2-3 years where he just goes off (ie 2006).   After a down year in 2007, are we in for a resurgence?  

26.     Robinson Cano: As a staunch supporter of the New York Yankees, I watch a lot of games.  I’ve seen a good majority of Robinson Cano’s MLB at bats.  This guy is INSANE!  When he’s on (not like the first half of 07, more like the 2^nd) he can hit any pitch to any part of the ballpark. Hit a ridiculous .343 after the All Star break, with 13 HR and 57 RBI.  If the Yankees wise up and move him to the #5 hole, between A-Rod and Posada, the blossoming 2B is gonna hit .320/25/110/100/5 and he’s gonna win a batting title one of these years. 

27.     Lance Berkman: The #1 multi-position eligible player in the game (1B, OF) had an off 2007, but still hit .278/34/102.  With the acquisition of Miguel Tejada and Kaz Matsui to infuse the lineup, Lance’s numbers should improve.   

28.     BJ Upton:  The #2 multi-position eligible player (2B, OF) is an electrifying talent that has #1 overall potential.  He may not have the patience yet to meet his 2007 batting average (.300), but he’s a good enough hitter to hit .285 with 30-30 potential.  Enjoy the 2B eligibility this year, but it is probably the last as he’s developed nicely as a CF. 

29.     Adam Dunn: Dunn owners were pleasantly surprised with a .264 average last year.  He’s hit exactly 40 home runs in each of the last 3 seasons, 46 the season before that.  He’s gonna kill your AVG, but he’s gonna give you excellent power numbers and is a very valuable player.  If he can hit .260 again, you’ll be fine. 

30.     Aramis Ramirez:  He missed about 30 games and still had excellent numbers.  Lock for .285/30/100/90. 

31.     Derek Jeter: It was a tough decision going with him over Carlos Guillen, but I think his downside is pretty close to Guillen’s upside.  At worst he’ll do what he did last year, .322/12/73/102/15, but he also has the potential to go .340/15/95/120/25. 

32.     Carlos Guillen:  Let’s call him 31(a). One of the most underrated players in fantasy baseball.  He’s gonna move to 1B this year and he’ll give you nice 5 category production.  Think .300/18/90/100/18.   

33.     Bobby Abreu:  Another Yankee lefty who endured a disastrous first half, but was en fuego after the break to give him nice overall numbers of the .283/16/101/123/25.  I think his numbers will be right there again this year, but you’ll be getting them more consistently.  A very nice player (I think Ari will disagree though). 

34.     Curtis Granderson:  To be honest, I did not realize how good a year he had last year until a couple weeks ago.  He probably deserves to be much higher on this list.  A very good shot to repeat his .300/23/74/122/26, 2007 numbers. 

35.     Carlos Lee:  One of these years he’s gonna be too fat to be good.  Problem is, each year he rakes.  I think the days of 20 steals are over, but he’s a lock at .285/30/110/90.  He’s just about done it the last 5 years.

36.     Brian Roberts:  The last of the good 2B’s.  Big drop-off after him.  Speed Demon.  Think .280/10/70/100/40. 

37.     Carlos Pena: 2007’s biggest surprise.  Won’t be that good again, but he’ll be close.  

38.     Garret Atkins:  There’s something about him I don’t like, but it’s definitely not his back to back campaigns of at least .300/25/110 or his home ballpark. 

39.     Victor Martinez:  Let me preface this with that I would never draft a catcher this high.  BUT, if I would, it would be him.  Projection: .300/18/90/80.  

40.     Troy Tulowitzki:  We cut him early last year.  Big mistake.  Imagine his numbers if he didn’t hit .244 in April?  In case you can’t, I think we’ll see them in 2008.  

41.     Jason Bay:  My pick for the 2008 Fantasy Superstar OF Who is Going to be Drafted Way Too Late and Win His Owners Leagues This Year Award.  Previous winners include Gary Sheffield (2007), Vernon Wells (2006).   

42.     Eric Byrnes:  Raise your hand if you predicted he’d go .286/21/83/103/50 in 2007? (Anyone? Anyone?) Raise your hand if you think he’ll do it again in 2008? (Anyone? Anyone?)  Raise your hand if you think he’ll come close (Ed. Note: I am raising my hand) 

43.     Nick Markakis:  A really nice young developing hitter.  Kind of reminds me a little of Paul O’Neill.  Should hit .310/25/100/100/15 for years to come. 

44.     Alex Rios: He teased us in 2006, but he really put out in 2007.  I don’t know how much upside he really has, but he should be able to duplicate his .297/24/85/114/17 statline. 

45.     Derek Lee: Had a decent year in 2007, coming back from a wrist injury.  The power stroke returned in the second half.  I think he should be safe for .300/30/100/90.  I think the days of 15 steals are gone though. 

46.     Russell Martin:  Had an incredible 2007, almost going 20-20 (finished at 19-21).  I don’t know if I’d bet on him doing it, but he should come close again.   

47.     Manny Ramirez:  Manny has regressed statistically in each of the last 2 years.  It can probably be attributed to poor health, and that is a legitimate concern for 2008.  However, if he can stay healthy, when he plays he rakes.   

48.     Paul Konerko:  We knew going into 2007 he wouldn’t hit .300 again, but we didn’t expect .259.  Nevertheless, he did finish with 31 homers and 90 RBI.  Again, if that’s a bad year, sign me up! 

49.     Gary Sheffield:  Got off to a terrible start but was just plain STUPID from May-July.  Then he got hurt and never really regained his stroke.  He should be healthy to start the year, so I expect a typical Gary Sheffield season.  Think .290/30/110/90/15.  Note that unless you are in a 10 game eligibility league, he’s a DH only.

50.     Jake Peavy:  Best pitcher in the game last year.  3 straight years of 200 K’s.  Give me one more year like last and you jump up to Santana land.

Just Missed: Miguel Tejada, Chipper Jones, Adrian Gonzalez

Top 50 Positional Breakdown:  2 SP, 2 C, 9 1B, 5 2B, 6 SS, 6 3B, 19 OF, 3 DH

Early Top 20

The sign of a true addict…

It’s midnight on a Saturday night, and I’m sitting here thinking to myself who are the Top 20 players in all of fantasy baseball for the 2008 season.  Well, here’s what I think……..for now:

1. A-Rod:  At this time last year, for the first time in about 4/5 years, no one was even thinking about him at #1, coming off a “bad year” of the .290/35/121/113/15 variety.  To me, that’s exactly why he should have remained in that discussion.  If that’s a bad year, imagine what a good year means.  Well, in case you didn’t know, A-Rod showed it, going off to the tune of .314/54/156/143/24.  This year no one is thinking about not making him #1.  5 category goodness!
2. Phat Albert Pujols: Now I know.  The sexy thing to do is rank one of the speedy shortstops first, but I’m going with last year’s undisputed #1 here.  Just as A-Rod did in ‘06, Pujols had a “bad year” finishing with a pedestrian .327/32/103/99/2.  Just as A-Rod in ‘07, I expect a return of the real Phat Albert.  Think something along the lines of his insane career avg.’s of .332/42/128/126/6.  The only reason he is below A-Rod is because he is in a far inferior lineup.
3. Hanley Ramirez: OK, now I’m sexy.  A lot of folks, myself included, thought we’d see a bit of regression in 2007 after HaRam’s .292/17/59/119/51, rookie of the year 2006.  Well, he raised his numbers precipitously across the board (except steals) to .332/29/81/125/51.  He just turned 24.  I don’t know if the numbers can get any better than that, but I don’t know that I’d bet against it. 
4.  Jimmy Rollins: I didn’t think he should have been NL MVP, but you can’t really argue when a little shortstop hits .296/ 30/94/139/41.  Mid-prime switch hitter + great lineup + great ballpark = another stellar season for J-Roll. 
5. Jose Reyes:202.  That’s how many bases Jose Reyes has stolen the last 3 years.  You have him on your team, you are guaranteed top 3 in steals.  It’s as simple as that.  No player in fantasy baseball dominates a single category more.  He took an expected power dip last season (come on, you really thought he’d hit 20 homers?) , but that’s the only reason he’s below HanRam and Rollins.
6.  Matt Holiday:  Remember how everyone used to call the next big thing in college basketball Baby-Jordan (see Harold Minor, JR Rider)?  Well, after a second monster year in a row I think I’m gonna start calling Holliday Baby Pujols.  In that crazy park, I fully expect another crazy year for my #1 OF.
7. Chase Utley:  The 2B finished last year at .332/22/103/104/9.   Oh, he missed 30 games.  Flat out STUPID numbers at the thinnest position in the sport.  Think .320/30/120/120/17.  Definitely worth this high ranking.
8. David Wright:  I may move him up over Utley as the season nears, because his numbers from ‘06 were certainly better, but I do not expect another 34 steals (think 20-25) and the position is a little deeper. 
9. Miguel Cabrera:  I was concerned with his physique last year, but initial reports are that he’s lost some baby fat this off-season, and the dude still puts up numbers in a crappy lineup every year.  Now in the middle of arguably the best lineup in baseball, I’m scared to see what he can do.  He  may be top 3 next year.
10.  Johan Santana: If he goes to the Yanks or Red Sox, he’s 20 wins guaranteed.   We already know the other numbers.   Peavy narrowed the gap a little, but he’s still the best pitcher in FBB, and the only one I put in the top 20.
11. Ryan Howard:  If he didn’t miss 18 games, he would have had back to back 50 homer years.  I don’t like that he only hit .268.  But you know what, if you do that and still hit 50/140, you are still damn good.
12. Prince Fielder: I said to my boy Ari last preseason that I think Fielder may explode like Ryan Howard did the year before.  I was right.  That’s why I put him right behind Howard this year.  I don’t know if I expect 50 dingers (think 40-45), but everything else should be on par.
13. David Ortiz: Only reasons he’s below these two are that he’s DH only and a little older. 
14. Vlad Guerrero: Only reason he’s below Ortiz is because he doesn’t run anymore.  He’s breaking down a little physically, but he’s still a beast!
15. Grady Sizemore:  If they move him out of the leadoff spot, he’ll drive in 100 runs.  As great as he is in fantasy, he’s even better in “real baseball.”   He’s come close the last 2, but he will go 30-30 this year.
16. Carl Crawford:  The last few years people (again, myself included) have rated him higher because they thought a power spike was coming, and he’d be 20 HR guy.  He actually dipped down to 11 homers in 07.  Let’s just all accept him for what he is, a great fantasy OF with top shelf speed, and call it at that.  Crazy Carl’s numbers have been pretty stable the last 3 years, so expect something like .310/15/80/100/50.  No shame in that.
17. Travis Hafner:  Probably the biggest bust in FBB 2007, Pronk’s gonna be back with a vengeance.  NOTE:  If you are in a league where 10 games at a position get you eligibility for the next season (Yahoo), Pronk had 11 games at 1B last year.  That moves him up to 15 on this list.
18. Carlos Beltran:  Every year, a few guys say they are gonna run more, only to let us down.  Beltran walked the walk last year, going from 18 to 23 steals, while missing 18 games.  He’s not gonna hit for a good average, but it will be decent (275ish) and everything else is gonna be excellent. 
19. Alfonso Soriano: He’s a tough guy to crack.  One year he’s top 5.  The next year he slips to the 2nd round, the next year he’s back in the top 5.  Now he’s back in the 2nd round.  I don’t know about top 5 next year, but he will rise.  He actually hit .299 last year and I love those 30-30 guys!
20. Ryan Braun:  I know, it was only one year.  But you know what, he was second only to A-Rod in terms of per-game production last year.  I think he’ll regress a little in the batting average (think 290) but he could still approach and even improve on his counting number totals of 34/97/91/15. 

Just missed:  Brandon Phillips, Mark Teixeira, Ichiro, Magglio Ordonez, Justin Morneau, Robinson Cano.

My Keeper Format and Tough Decisions

So here’s how the keepers work in RAMROD.  You are allowed to keep 1 player from each of 5 tiers based on last year’s draft, for one season after they were drafted.  At any time, you can substitute a player in lower tier for a higher one. For the upcoming season, my keepers are lined up as such:

 

• A Tier (round 1-3 from 2007 draft) – A-Rod.  The obvious choice.  

• B Tier (4-7) Ichiro.  He wins out over Konerko, Michael Young, Sheffield, Joe Nathan.

• C Tier (8-12).  Here’s where it starts getting a little tougher.  I have to choose between two of last year’s breakout SP’s, Dan Haren and Erik Bedard.  Untill he got hurt towards the end of last season, I would have said Bedard for sure, due to the high K potential, but the injury risk does concern me a little bit.  With Haren’s trade to the NL, his value certainly rises, but then again, Bedard may be joining him in quadruple A.  As of now, I’m still leaning toward Bedard, but that may change.  I think there is a chance last year was as good as it gets from Bedard, which is amazing, but I think Haren still may be rising.  He could take another big step this year.
• D Tier (13-18).  The options are two NY Yankee hurlers, Chien Ming Wang and phenom Joba Chamberlain (eligible as an E).  Now this decision becomes real easy if Joba stays in the bullpen.  If he ain’t getting saves, I ain’t wasting a keeper on him this year.  But if he does join the rotation as expected, then you have a tough call.  Wang is valuable because of his ability to get wins and post a respectible ERA and WHIP.  Being that they play on the same team, I think they should win about the same ammount of games.  Throw in that Joba has 200 K potential, and I think you may have to give the edge to the kid.

• E Tier (19-25 plus undrafteds).  Chris B. Young.  A 30-30 guy is hard to come by.  His terrible average from 2007 should go up, in turn raising his other counting stats (HR, RBI, R, SB’s) as he should be on base more.  I expect big things.

So basically, my two big decisions are what to do with my C and D keepers.  I’d love to hear what everyone thinks/

It’s ON!

Fantasy Football season is officially over (unless you play in a 17 week league, which is just lame) and that means it’s time to start getting ready for FBB 2008!

 Big Year Ahead!  I have to defend MORE COWBELL!’s title in my big money keeper league (RAMROD). Anyone can win once.  To repeat is special and that is my goal.

 Over the next few weeks, I’ll be discussing the various keeper and draft prep issues that will be coming to my mind.  If anyone is reading this, I’d love to hear your thoughts.